Good Wednesday everyone. We have a much colder day in store for the region and this comes after a busy Tuesday that featured some severe weather. Nothing like spring in January. Will it continue or is the cold air to the north starting to flex some muscle?
There has been a ton of talk in the weather world about a massive warmup that would dwarf the mild weather we’ve seen this winter. This was originally supposed to engulf the region this week… then this weekend… then the models pushed it back into next week. And now? The models aren’t really that impressed and, if anything, are going the other way. Could this be a sign of the bitterly cold air across Canada and the northern tier of the country becoming more of a bully? I guess we will find out soon enough.
Our short term forecast starts out with a few light snow showers or flurries today. These will get on out of town later this afternoon as we try to break out into a partly sunny sky. Highs will run in the 30-35 degree range for many areas.
A system will then dive into our region late Thursday into Thursday night. Winds are going to really gust up ahead of this weak front and we should see a nice spike in temps. Seeing this spike likely means we are dealing with a robust little front that may be an overachiever in terms of the swath of light snow it can produce. It’s actually showing up much more pronounced on the latest GFS…
Much of the precipitation will fall behind whatever boundary there is and that means it’s mainly light snow. It may start out as a touch of light rain for some before a quick change to light snow. This may have enough juice to drop a light accumulation of snow into Thursday evening as temps drop into the 20s. Let’s keep an eye on this.
Something else to keep an eye on will be the system moving in late Friday into Saturday. Low level arctic cold air is firmly entrenched across areas to our north and we get a touch of that to bleed in behind the Thursday system. This stuff is usually hard to dislodge and you end up getting warmer air forced on top of the cold layer. The storm moving in to start the weekend will draw up a mild tongue of air at the surface… but this can only get so far north. Look at the temps from the GFS and you will see what I’m talking about…
You can see how the milder air never really reaches the Ohio River before the colder air collapses back in behind the departing low.
Here’s the same GFS run with precipitation type…
It puts theat mix line a little too close for comfort and is something for us to watch for.
We will mild it up for a few days late weekend into Monday, but the overall look of the pattern next week is one that will bring some wintry shots out way. A couple of big storms are likely to be roaming about the country during this time.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Wednesday and take care.