A Couple Of Wintry Shots The Next Few Days- 6:30pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Two systems will impact the region with some wintry weather.

6:30pm Update

Good Thursday evening. We’ve been in a very busy weather pattern for the past few weeks and this shows no signs of letting up. Mother nature is going to throw a lot of action our way over the next several days. So, let’s get after it.

A band of light snow and flurries will work across the region late this evening into the overnight. This can put down a coating for a few spots and a little more in the north. Temps behind the front are very cold and the north will settle into the mid and high teens by morning. Everyone else will be in the 20s.

That temperature spread is going to become fairly dramatic late Friday into Friday night. There could be a 20-25 degree range from north to south during this time. Precipitation will be moving into the area from the west into the afternoon hours. The forecast temp gradient being shown by the GFS has not changed over the past three days.

Here’s what it looks like today…

The model continues to show southeastern Ky and southern WV spiking into the 50s Friday night, while areas along the north hold near freezing. Temps then crash into the 20s across much of the north by Saturday morning.

That suggests the potential for a mix and light freezing rain for areas where the temps are at or below 32 degrees. I get the fact the NAM is milder… but it is also trending colder than what it’s been showing. I don’t get the fact that so many are totally dismissing the GFS temperature profile when it has shown the exact same thing for several days. This isn’t the GFS from 5 days out… it’s a day away, so it has to be given some weight.

We will see how this all plays out… but I want to make sure to give you a “heads up” to the POSSIBILITY of a mix or light ice across parts of the region.

The hits keep coming our way by Sunday night into Monday as another potent storm drags a cold front through here. Here’s the European Model…

 That setup could bring another round of strong or severe thunderstorms and gusty winds Monday with cold and snow showers by Monday night. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. ;)

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Thursday to one and all. Our week is slowly winding down and we’re tracking a couple of systems that can bring some wintry weather to parts of the region. The first system arrives later this evening with a shot of light snow and the other may bring more of a mixed bag threat late Friday into Saturday.

Let’s take them one at a time. The first system arrives in the form of a weak cold front this evening. Winds are going to gust our ahead of this bad boy and temps will spike into the 40s before it sweeps in. A band of light snow and flurries will be along and just behind the front and some of this may start out in the form of a rain shower. Here’s the GFS showing the light snow action this evening and overnight…

Any one area can pick up a light accumulation overnight as temps drop into the upper teens and low 20s. We will get a better idea on how this plays out after seeing the late day radar.

That brings us to the next system that sweeps in late Friday into Saturday. The setup with this is rather complicated as a lot of low level, cold air will be locked in just to our north. The GFS has been insistent on the potential for a HUGE temperature gradient setting up from north to south during this time. Check out what I’m talking about…

The model keeps showing that cold air hanging tough as precipitation moves in. The end result is the POTENTIAL for light ice or a mix for some areas…

Here’s the Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast from that same run…

Many of the other forecast models have been showing a warmer solution with the mix line being farther north. Some of them are looking a little colder as we get closer. It will be interesting to see exactly how this plays out as none of the models do very well in handling shallow cold air masses. I can’t endorse what the GFS is showing, but I can’t say it’s wrong either.

That system pulls away to give us a decent Sunday as milder air moves in. It won’t last very long. Check out the GFS Ensembles by Monday Evening…

I will have more updates later today, so be sure to check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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