A Lot Of Winter Ahead Of Us- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Milder temps are moving in today as we focus on a wintry pattern for next week.

6pm Update

Good Thursday evening my fellow weather weenies. March weather is back today and will carry us into Friday before we begin to switch it up a bit. The bigger switch will come for the middle and end of next week as another arctic blast dives in.

We head well into the 50s and close to 60 on Friday. Winds will also be rather gusty and stir memories of March. A cold front will then dip in here from the northwest on Saturday with a few clouds and cooler air. Temps should come back down into the 40s and there could be a sprinkle or light shower.

I am still watching the potential for a wave of low pressure to develop along the stalled front. This could throw some cold showers in here for Sunday and Monday. The NAM simulated radar is really ramping up the threat...



A big cutoff low will spin across Texas into early next week and then head our way by Wednesday. That will bring heavy rain to our region as arctic air sweeps in behind the storm. There are various possibilities for the end of next week in terms of phasing and we will have to see how that plays out. But, I wouldn't be surprised to see another big cutoff low across the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. That may make for some interesting weather.

The GFS Ensembles are even deeper with the trough today than they were last night...



The European Ensembles are pretty excited, too.



B to the RRRRRR!

That's, AT LEAST, a widespread snow shower and squall producer for Thursday and Friday.

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Thursday everyone. Our temps are set to mild up over the next few days and many of you will be saying 'here we go again'. While we will be warmer than normal... there is a ton of winter ahead of us and a week from now looks to be the beginning of the fun and games pattern.

Milder air will surge into the region today as our temps hit the low and mid 40s. Everyone will hit the 50s on Friday under partly sunny skies. Our winds are going to crank up over the next few days and that may keep it from feeling like the temp says.

A cold front drops in on Saturday with an increase in clouds and a decrease in temps. Readings will come back down into 40s for highs and there could be a few showers on the move. There still looks to be a wave of low pressure trying to develop along the boundary that checks up across the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. This may throw some moisture our way and the GFS Ensembles are hinting at this...



Seasonal temps in the upper 30s and low 40s will be with us to end the weekend.

It's at this point we begin to watch a storm developing across Texas. This is likely to spawn from a cutoff area of low pressure that sits around for a few days waiting for a trough to swing in and pick it up. That happens later Tuesday and Wednesday as this storm rides right on top of us with heavy rain a possibility. The trough picking up this system has a seriouus shot of arctic cold diving into it and would imply a switch to snow to be followed by wraparound snow showers and squalls for a few days to go along with the coldest temps of the winter.

I really like what the Canadian Model is doing...

Wednesday Morning


Thursday Morning

Thursday Evening

We'll have to keep an eye on the possibility of this storm cutting off across the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. Regardless... this is a heck of a trough the models are showing. Check out the 500mb Height Anomalies from the GFS Ensembles...



It's a pattern that may feature an arctic blitz for the rest of the month with the potential for widespread cold engulfing much of the country. Stay tuned.

I will throw another update your way later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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