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A Taste Of Mild Before Wild?- 5pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Temps will be heading toward 70 today as the pattern gets ready to change.

5pm Update

Good Tuesday evening gang. We are putting the wraps on a gorgeous day across the region and this is all ahead of a dramatic change in our weather. We have two systems we are tracking over the next several days.

The first system brings an increase in clouds with some showers developing on Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will then develop along a front crossing the state Wednesday night. This will bring a round of heavy rain into early Thursday. Temps for Thursday will drop into the 40s with some showers continuing. This part of the forecast remains pretty clear cut.

The question mark is with the second storm for Friday into Saturday. The GFS continues to show nothing impacting the eastern part of the country. The European Model continues to bring low pressure out of the south and up the east coast...


While that appears to be trending toward the middle ground solution I talked about last night... it is still a formidable storm that looks like it's straight out of winter.

That solution brings some chilly showers in here for Friday and early Saturday and keeps our highs in the low and mid 40s. The model continues to say some mix rain and snow would be possible with more snow in the WV mountains. The non storm producing GFS says we get in on dry weather with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s for highs.

The fall pattern continues to point the way toward a very active winter for much of the country. November has the look of producing some wild weather!

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

                       
Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping by the blog. The above pic from Kentucky was a view millions and millions of Americans had last night as the Northern Lights made a rare appearance. A big solar wind slammed the earth Monday afternoon and evening allowing for the Aurora Borealis to be seen VERY far south. I hope you had a chance to catch a glimpse.

As far as the weather is concerned... it's a busy period for the eastern half of the country as the pattern starts to look more and more like winter.

That won't be the case out there today as we have a winner taking shape. Highs will hit the upper 60s and low 70s for most. Skies will be partly sunny with a nice southwesterly wind setting in.

The pattern starts to crank up by Wednesday as a strong cold front sinks into the Ohio Valley. A wave of low pressure will develop along this front and move right on top of us into Thursday morning. This should set up a nice temp gradient from northwest to southeast on Wednesday with temps crashing behind the front on Thursday.

Heavy rains will be a good bet with the highest totals likely being across the northern half of the region. You can see that well on the NAM Rainfall Forecast...



The same model then goes on to produce some nice snows across the northeastern part of the country and a touch of snow into the WV mountains...



While likely overdone, that is certainly an impressive sight to see for the end of October.

Back here on the ranch... the models have been in a bit of a battle over a possible second storm system late Friday into Saturday. The European and Canadian Models have been showing this second system in recent days...



If that run comes to pass, we would be talking about a cold rain that could end as a mix of rain and snow into Saturday. That is a big IF right now as it is awfully hard to get a setup like that this time of year. The GFS doesn't even have a second storm impacting anyone as it keeps it out in the Atlantic. Is that the typical progressive bias of the model coming into play? We will find out soon enough. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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