A Week Of Weather Changes Ahead- 3pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Old man winter comes calling later this week.

3pm Update

Good Sunday afternoon, friends. We’re seeing the models all boarding the arctic express for the end of the week into the weekend. That’s always good to see as it leads to a higher confidence forecast. This will be the coldest air, so far, and we also have a few rounds of snow to contend with.

Let’s get a quick review of the models and we start with the overall view from the European Model for Thursday and Friday…

That’s a heck of a deep trough digging into the Ohio Valley and engulfing much of the eastern half of the country. Check out that closed low across the lakes and OV as it matches what I’ve been talking about happening for the past several days. Here’s a closer up view of the same model…

That’s snow along and behind the arctic front sweeping in Wednesday night into early Thursday with extensive wraparound snows on a northwesterly wind. You can also see my weekend clipper digging into the Ozarks by Saturday morning as it takes a Tennessee Valley track.

I haven’t used the JMA yet this winter, so let’s use it to validate the wraparound snows later Thursday into early Friday…

I have a blast poking fun at the GFS and those who use it exclusively… as you guys are fully aware of . :) It had been the ONLY model not showing this big arctic shot for later next week and the forecasters who worship it blindly followed it. Wonder what they’re thinking today? Here’s the latest GFS…

While still not cold enough… that looks a lot like what all the other models have been saying for days now. ;)

I will update later if I have anything else I want to show. If not, a full update will come your way later tonight. Have a great rest of your Sunday and take care.


Good Sunday everyone. Our weekend is about to wrap up and you are probably thinking the same thing I’m thinking… where did it go? It’s been a tame few days of weather as we get set for some big time weather changes for the upcoming week. Old man winter begins his comeback this week and it looks like he wants to make up for lost time.

Our short term weather features a mix of sun and clouds today as a cold front stalls out just to our south in the Tennessee Valley. We will see a nice temp gradient setting up from north to south today. Highs in the low 40s to the north will be common with the south closer to 50.

Moisture will increase along and nother of the boundary later tonight into early Monday. This means some light rain will be possible… especially across the southern half of the region. Temps early Monday may be close to freezing in some areas and we will have to keep an eye on that.

It’s at this point we turn our wintry eyes toward the changes ahead for the middle and end of next week. Low pressure works out of Texas into our region from Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will bring locally heavy rain in here from Tuesday night into Wednesday. The low goes by to our north and northeast by Wednesday night as an arctic front approaches from the northwest. This front should plow in here on Thursday as our temps plummet.

One of the latest trends in the models is to bring a wave of low pressure northward along this front from Thursday night into Friday. That could make for some interesting times for snow lovers if this low is real. Here’s how the Canadian Model see it…

That model has been getting more robust with that setup over the past few days. The GFS Ensembles are also picking up on the wave train…

The latest run of the GFS is even picking up on this as the model FINALLY begins to see the cold and threat for snow. Better late than never. :)

The pattern may give us another threat for snow by this time next weekend as a clipper dives in from the northwest. This is all part of a very wintry pattern taking shape for much of the country for the rest of January into early February.

I will have another update later today. Have a fantastic Sunday and take care.

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