A Wild Weather Weekend- 9:30pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

From Ice to Thunderstorms... we have it all over the next few days.

9:30pm Update

Good Friday evening. A wintry mix has developed across parts of northeastern Kentucky, southern Ohio and northern parts of West Virginia. Light freezing rain is the main player across these areas and we are getting some reports of light ice forming into Ohio.

The precipitation will really increase into the overnight and I have no changes to the forecast. Take care.

6pm Update

Good evening everyone. Our wild weekend of weather is kicking off with an ice storm for parts of the region. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for much of southern Ohio and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for areas just to the south of that. Here's a look...

The warning is for the possibility of .25″ or more of freezing rain. That would be enough to cause some serious issues. Farther south… the advisory is for areas that may get .10″-25″ of freezing rain or mix. That would be more than enough to ice things up.

I will have more updates as needed. Take care.

1pm Update

Good afternoon gang. I have no changes to my thought process from earlier as a wintry mix and ice targets areas along and north of Interstate 64 this evening into Saturday. The models are a bit wetter across the north and that’s an area I expect a light to moderate ice event to unfold. This may end up causing some issues and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this upgraded to a warning for some areas.

Midday temps range from the low 20s in the north to the low 40s to the south. That has trouble written all over it!

A full update comes your way a little later this afternoon. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Friday everyone and welcome to a wild weather weekend across the region. We have the potential for everything from ice to strong thunderstorms over the next few days. This may not be the snowy pattern many of you crave... but it's far from boring.

We are going to start the weekend out with a major temperature gradient from north to south. The spread may be greater than 25 degrees later tonight as low pressure works across the Tennessee Valley. Moisture will be streaking in from the west and southwest later this afternoon into the evening hours. There is a ton of low level, arctic air in place across the northern half of the Ohio Valley and this stuff is very hard to push around. Milder air often gets shunted over top of it, leading to the potential for a mix or ice.

Here's what I'm currently thinking in terms of precipitation late today into early Saturday...

The lines are not rock solid as it will all depend on where that 32 degree line sets up. It will move north a bit overnight as the low gets closer. The freezing mark should then crash back in as the low is to our east. The GFS has been steady of late and the other models are going toward it.

The latest GFS shows how the precipitation type varies from one time to the next...

That same model run continues to point toward the northern half of the tri state as being the prime area for light ice accumulation...

That is something we must watch VERY closely as it only takes a small amount of ice to create some BIG travel problems. This is a situation for us to track hour by hour as the precipitation moves in later today. Track it here...

That system moves out later Saturday with the next one slated to arrive Sunday night. Temps will spike up well into the 50s on Sunday as a gusty southwesterly wind blows ahead of a strong cold front. This front will have a nice push of cold air behind it...

We will need to be on guard for a squall line of strong or severe thunderstorms rolling from east to west Sunday night into early Monday. High winds will be the main threat with the storms and behind the front. A few snowflakes may even fly later in the day Monday.

Is that a wild enough weekend for you?

I will have updates as needed through the day so check back. Be sure to follow me on twitter @ChrisBaileyWSAZ for some rapid fire thoughts. Your reports will become invaluable in helping us determine what type of precip is falling where, so keep those coming.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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