A Busy Pattern Rolls Into Christmas- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

From heavy rain to possible snow... we have it all over the next several days.

6pm Update

Good evening gang. Anyone else hearing that noise? Shhh... listen quietly. You can hear that loud chorus of other folks now talking about the possibility of some snow this Christmas weekend. Hard to believe we actually have the chance for Christmas snow with a taste of spring in the air right now.

I really have no changes from my thoughts from the past several days on how the weekend plays out. The European Model continues to hold a steady hand with a Christmas into Monday storm system.



If we take that model at face value it would mean rain and snow changing to snow Christmas Day with backlash light snow into Monday. Is the model right? It has been steady as a rock with the overall theme of a Christmas storm and this is the model you want leading the pack.

The poor GFS continues to be wretched beyond belief. It runs 4 times a day and never shows a similar solution.

I still cannot say you are going to have a white Christmas. I do think many areas will see flakes flying at some point this weekend. Can we get a track to give us accumulating snows? It's possible and that's something I will be closely following over the next few days.

Our short term weather is mild and wet. You could even hear some thunder later tonight into Wednesday as a cold front swings in. There is enough wind energy upstairs that any strong shower or storm could tap some of this and create gusty winds. Temps will head toward the low 60s.

Another wet weather maker crashes the party on Thursday. This system will have heavy rains to go along with chilly temps in the 40s.

A Full update will be on later tonight and I will be tweeting some updated thoughts. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Tuesday to one and all. If you were planning on a quiet holiday travel period... you may want to star over as mother nature is loaded with fast moving systems that will impact our region and much of the country. This sets the stage for heavy rain over the next few days with the potential for wintry conditions in time for Christmas weekend.

Let's start with today and work forward. Low pressure is moving in from the southwest and will cross the Ohio Valley late tonight and early Wednesday. Showers will increase out there today... especially in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Follow the drops in from the west...




Rain will increase overnight and early tomorrow and I can't rule out a rumble of thunder in some cases. Winds should also be on the gusty side as temps spike well into the 50s today and Wednesday. A 60 is possible.

This storm will work to our northeast on Wednesday as cooler air moves in. Our drying trend won't last long as a compact, but soaker of a storm develops to our southwest early Thursday. Heavy rain will overspread the region and carry us into Thursday night. Rainfall of 1"-2" will be possible through Friday morning.

It's at this point things begin to take on a much more wintry look. Colder air slowly slides in from the northwest. I have been harping on the dual system idea now for several days and the models are going toward my thoughts. One system works through and just to our south Friday with another, more important storm impacting Christmas Day into Monday.

The European Model has the Friday wave of low pressure along the Tennessee Valley with a cold rain or a mix of some rain and snow close to us. The model then jumps toward the bigger storm idea with low pressure developing across the Gulf Christmas Eve and lifting northward along the coast Christmas Day...



It also shows another system diving in from the northwest Christmas Night into Monday. The above maps would put us in play for some snow. Again... i'm just breaking down what the map is showing.

The GFS has been slowly coming around to more of a storm idea... though it does have timing and phasing issues compared to the European...



I am not to the point that I can say for sure that it will snow where you live this weekend. I can only tell you it is certainly an increasing option. To what extent remains to be seen and that's something that should become more clear in another day or so.

Regardless... the weather for Christmas weekend looks anything but mild and dry like some of you guys were promised from 9 days away. No... I'm not tired of saying that yet. haha

Updates will come your way later today. Have a good Tuesday and take care.

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