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6pm Update

Good evening everyone and thanks for dropping by. We have a very active week of weather across our part of the world as several systems ride a strong temperature gradient into town.

The first system rolls in on Tuesday. Warmer air continues to surge in here with temps overnight staying 45-50 in most cases. Highs may hit 60 on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front that will touch off some showers and thunderstorms. Winds will also be a big issue with gusts to 35mph possible.

The front clears the state during the evening hours as temps take a big tumble into the upper 20s and low 30s by late evening. There will be just enough moisture to squeeze out some flurries and snow showers into Wednesday morning.

Arctic air has a firm grip on the northern tier of the country as spring air develops across the southern states. This puts our region in the battleground for the rest of the week and that’s where storm systems like to hang out.

A weak system heads into the Ohio Valley by later Thursday and Thursday night and should have a swath of light snow with it. That can impact our region and several models are showing the chance for some accumulating snow. The GFS, Canadian and NOGAPS have been most impressed with this possibility. Here’s the Canadian for Thursday evening…

That is something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

I have been talking about a milder weekend taking shape, but the dense, arctic air to our north is going to try to hold steady. That should mean another system working in here later Friday and early Saturday. It is likely a cold rain maker, but I am concerned for some frozen stuff coming from this. Here’s the GFS…

That doesn’t have the look of a massive warmup, does it? I do expect milder air by the end of the weekend into early next week.. but I do not expect this to be something that holds for more than a few days. There should be another big dip in the jet stream for the middle and end of the week.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

Good Monday and welcome to a new week of weather. We have a lot of changes ahead over the next several days and the highlight will be another strong cold front arriving on the scene Tuesday. This will spawn another big temp drop to go along with some rain ending as snow showers.

Our week begins with clouds on the increase out there today. Temps are going to rebound into the 40s as a few showers develop from southwest to northeast this evening. This action will hold off until well after all the MLK Day activities.

Showers and winds will both increase overnight into early Tuesday. This happens as low pressure in the plains works toward the Great Lakes and drags a strong cold front through here. Temps ahead of this boundary will spike well into the 50s with a shot at 60. Readings will then tank as the front moves through with another big drop expected. Temps will hit the 20s just a few hours after the front passes. This contrast of air means locally heavy rain will be possible and you may hear some thunder again. Snow showers and flurries will be noted behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Here’s the GFS…

The GFS Ensembles offer a slightly better shot at some snow showers…

High temps for Wednesday may struggle to get out of the 20s for many areas.

There is another system we will need to keep track of for late Thursday into early Friday. This system will dive into the Ohio Valley from the northwest and will have one heck of a temperature gradient to work with. This may bring a band of light snow in here during this time. The GFS Ensembles like the idea for early Friday…

That arctic air across the northern tier may push that system a little farther south. The models sometimes can be off with the placement of things because they underestimate just how the dense, cold air can push things around a bit.

Regardless… we look to roll into a wetter and milder pattern from the weekend into early next week. It’s not going to take hold as another deep trough likely works into the central and eastern part of the country for the middle and end of next week.

I will have another update later today. Enjoy your Monday and take care.