Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping by. The weather pattern appears to FINALLY be undergoing significant changes and it may be just in time for Christmas and the holidays.
Before we try to turn the winter corner... we have some mild and wet weather ahead of us this week. What else is new there?
Our short term outlook calls for a mix of sun and clouds out there today with temps into the upper 40s and low 50s for highs. There could be a scattered shower or two... especially across the west.
A warm front swings across the region tonight and early Wednesday. This should touch off a few showers as it quickly heads to the north. A flood of mild air will work in during the afternoon with temps heading into the low 60s for some. Winds are going to kick up as well.
Rain will increase on Thursday as a storm rolls into the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through here. Highs will spend on last day in the 50s before much colder air swings in by Friday. It's at this point many of the models have been saying the cold front puts the brakes on allowing for a wave of low pressure to work northeastward along it.
The GFS Ensembles have been very adamant in showing this...
That would certainly imply a cold rain on Friday with a mix of some rain and snow by Saturday. The GFS has now joined in the wave camp...
There is another line of thought that would have that front be a tad farther south allowing for the wave to pass us by with a minimal impact. Regardless... temps from Friday into the weekend will be chilly with upper 30s and low 40s for highs.
The big cutoff low across the southwestern states looks like it wants to eject out into early next week. The latest runs of the European and Canadian models took this system on a path that would allow for a storm to develop and roll across the Tennessee Valley with a swath of wintry to the north and rain along and to the south.
The GFS Ensembles are giving that scenario boost...
It will be interesting to watch and see how this plays out. Again... those big closed lows have a mind of their own and really give the models fits.
We're less than two weeks until Christmas and EVERYONE wants to know if it will be white. It's still too early to say... but the pattern appears to be more favorable to produce some snow by the time Christmas weekend arrives.
Those same GFS Ensembles...
So, you're telling me there's a chance?
Smile people... it's only weather.
Have a great Day and check back for updates. Take care.