Arctic Cold and Snow Ahead- 10pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

A serious blast of winter is on the way for the next few days.

10pm Update

Good evening everyone. Light snow and flurries are already breaking out across the region and radar is showing action to our northwest diving in here. Snow may arrive a little quicker on Monday and may cause slick travel before the day is over. I feel good about the snow map I put out earlier, but will make a few changes with the next map due out later tonight.

There's a chance I am underdone on the snow for some areas. We shall see.

Take care.

3pm Update

Good Sunday afternoon and Happy New Year. It's a rocking start to the year with gusty winds of 40-45mph at times. The wind is blowing in some much colder air this afternoon and evening with even colder air and snow waiting in the wings.

Temps will continue to tank this afternoon and evening with readings falling through the 30s from northwest to southeast.

A few flurries and snow showers will be possible this evening into the overnight as we await the arrival of the arctic air on Monday. This will keep temps in the mid and upper 20s for highs Monday and only allow for readings to hit the low and mid 20s by Tuesday. Temps will drop into the teens Monday night. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder than what the thermometer says.

I continue to REALLY like the snow chances from Monday through Tuesday across the entire region. Snow ratios will be very high, so it won't take much moisture to produce snow.

Here's my first take on it...



I will update that map later tonight and put out a last call early Monday. Keep in mind that most of the snow will fall Monday afternoon through the first half of Tuesday.

Happy New Year and take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Sunday and HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2012 is starting off with a bang as a strong cold front works across the region. This front has some serious wind with it and will bring a big temp drop late today that leads us into arctic air and snow over the next few days.

I will have a full update later today. In the meantime... Let's hit the high notes and throw some tracking tools your way.

- Winds today are going to gust to 40mph at times as our front works in. A wet ground argues for some weak trees to be in trouble.

- Temps will be well into the 40s to start the day and will quickly fall into the 30s from west to east this afternoon and early evening.

- A few showers will likely accompany the front and I can see a snow shower or flurry behind it before we dry it out for a few hours tonight.

- A secondary system moves in Monday and will usher in the arctic air and increase snow and snow showers across the region. Norhtwesterly winds will then kick in later in the day and carry us into early Tuesday and that will give us a booster shot of snow showers and squalls.

Check out the European Model by Tuesday Morning...



Let me draw your attention to the relative humidity panels at the bottom. The one on the right is at 850mb and the left is 700mb. Both are very moist and that's a good sign for widespread snow showers and squalls. Throw in the passage of the thermal min and viola.. accumulating snows. How much? I hope to have a map out later today, but this looks like a general 1"-3" with locally higher amounts and MUCH more in the mountains.

The GFS Ensembles match up pretty well...



- Temps will stay in the mid and upper 20s for highs Monday and only reach the low and mid 20s for Tuesday. Lows will hit the teens by Tuesday morning.

- Winds will be gusty and this will make it feel even colder and will blow around whatever snow you have outside your house.

- I still like the possibility of a weak system diving in by Wednesday night and early Thursday.

- The pattern has a wintry look over the next few weeks. The GFS is going crazy with cold and snow... but it is the GFS.

Here are the tracking toys...




Check back for an update at some point late today. Happy New Year and take care.

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