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Arctic Shot To Start 2012- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

The new year looks to start out on a cold note.

6pm Update

Good Thursday evening everyone. I wanted to drop by with an update to say there is really nothing that needs updated. The pattern for the next week is fairly easy as we only have the details to iron out.

It's a big time blast of arctic air moving in New Year's Day and carrying us into the first half of next week. The maps below say BRRRRRRR!

European Model


European Ensembles


My thoughts:

- New Year's Day starts windy and mild with temps well into the 40s. Rain showers ahead of the front will change to snow showers behind it by late in the day as temps crash through the 30s.

- Snow showers and squalls will be likely from Sunday night through Tuesday. The Great Lakes are ice free and above normal in temps. The models will catch on to this over the next few days.

- Temps Monday and Tuesday will likely stay in the 20s for highs with lows down into the low and mid teens By Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds of 30mph will be possible during this time and may create wind chills near 0 at times.

- The first school delays and cancelations are very possible early next week.

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Thursday to one and all. We're just a few days away from closing out 2011 and the weather is fairly calm and quiet. 2012 looks to come in with a much different idea on how to run winter as an arctic blasts targets us and much of the eastern half of the country.

Our remaining days of the year look to feature fairly mild temps, plenty of clouds and breezy weather. Temps the next few days will hit the upper 40s and low 50s. We do have weak system dropping in by Thursday night and this will allow for the chance for some rain showers that may mix with a flake by Saturday morning.

You can see this fast moving system on the GFS...



That scoots through here at a good clip and will be out of town as we say hello to 2012. Temps will be in the 30s as we flip the calendar to the new year.

The real change begins New Year's Day as an arctic front works blows through here. Our highs for the day will come during the morning hours and the winds will become very gusty. A line of rain showers will be along and ahead of the front with a period of light snow and snow showers behind it.

The Canadian Model shows how this plays out...

Sunday Evening


Monday Morning

Monday Evening

At this point, there should be no "this model verses this model" talk as they ALL now show a deep trough in the east. They have the usual subtle differences that you expect from 4 days out.

My take is we get a couple of days with highs struggling to get out of the 20s and lows dipping into the low and mid teens. Winds will be gusty during this time and that will really add to the chill.

What about the snow chances? The pattern argues for snow showers and squalls during this time and that's especially true given how warm the Great Lakes are. We will also need to watch a system diving in by the middle of the week and that can become a snow producer.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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