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Big Weather Changes Ahead- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Our March weather will soon give way to a serious dose of reality.

6pm Update

Good Friday evening gang. It's full steam ahead toward a significant wintry pattern taking control of our weather late next week and likely lasting into February. Much of the country is should see a major pattern flip!

The fun begins during the second half of next week as a southern storm moves through the region just as an arctic attack move in from the north. How these two interact with one another is yet to be determined, but I wouldn't be surprised to see these two fully phase.

The GFS Ensembles are certainly hinting at this...



The European Ensembles are similar...



There are so many possibilities for the end of next week, it's hard to imagine us not getting snow out of this.

Regardless of the Wednesday storm... I expect a huge upper level low to form across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes for Thursday and Friday. Snow showers and squalls would be likely in this setup, but there is the potential for something more. That cutoff low may act as a bicycle wheel with spokes of energy rotating around it with each producing snow chances. 

Can one of those spokes tap some southern moisture? The Canadian Model thinks so...



Again... there are a number of possibilities for the end of next week into next weekend. That arctic plunge means business!

I continue to see growing signs that a harsh wintry period may be taking shape for much of the country over the next several weeks.My confidence is increasing by the day.

The blog may have some issues later tonight or at some point over the weekend as I am attempting to switch it over to the new look.

Have a great evening and take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Friday and welcome to the weekend. Things are getting started off with a March feel across the area as our temps warm close to 60 degrees with gusty winds blowing. Some changes are in store for the weekend with a major change ahead for next week.

Let's start with the precious present and work forward. Temps today will generally run in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Wind gusts may hit 25mph or higher this afternoon.

A cold front settles into the region early Saturday and will bring an increase in clouds and a small threat for a shower. Temps will also come down toward more seasonal levels in the 40s. I am still keeping an eye on the potential for moisture streaming in from the southwest Sunday into Monday. The NAM continues to advertise an increasing threat for rain. Here's the simulated radar from the model...



There could even be a touch of frozen stuff on the northern edge of that IF the NAM is right. Most of the other models aren't as robust with the precipitation coming that far north.

The longer range forecast for the middle and end of next week continues to focus around two major players. 1. An arctic outbreak. 2. A slow moving storm and whether or not it phases with the arctic plunge.

Number one is pretty much a given as a heck of a shot of cold comes calling by Thursday and Friday of next week. How does the storm interact with the trough bringing the arctic air? That remains to be seen and we are still 5 days away from that happening so there will be a lot of model solutions on all this.

The storm in question will be the result of a cutoff low across Texas this weekend. This will spawn a surface low that will slowly lift northward late Tuesday into Wednesday and should bring us some heavy rain as it does so. Some of the models suggest this system slides up just to our east with the arctic front catching the back edge of it. That would result in a switch to some snow with more snow showers and squalls than anything.

The other solution would be for much more of a phased solution across the Ohio Valley. That simply means the dip in the jet stream would incorporate the storm into it and mean more of a rain to snow situation around here as arctic air is drawn into it all. You would still get the snow showers and squalls as a bonus. The GFS Ensembles like the more phased look...



The Canadian Model shows the lead storm staying separated from the arctic attack, but shows a heck of a cutoff low developing from the trough with a possible low pressure wave along the front...



That's some serious cold on the model. The deep trough digging into our region and for much of the eastern half of the country should have staying power. That setup means to watch for some storms dropping in from the northwest.

Canadian Model Sunday, January 15th


The European Model looks an awful lot like the Canadian during the same time period. As I said yesterday... we have a ton of winter weather ahead of us.

More updates will come your way later today and through the weekend. Have a great Friday and take care.

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