Changes For Early February?

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

I take a look into the first few weeks of the new month.

Good Sunday everyone. We are just about to wrap up the month of January and it has been a huge disappointment for snow and cold lovers. It’s the time of year when your friendly weatherdude begins to start getting into spring mode. I’m more of a first half of winter snow lover and I like when we can get in on an early start to spring. The problem with this is… It’s looking more like winter may want to crash that early spring party.

Let’s talk about the short-term weather before getting into all that.

We have another front crossing the region today and this will bring another round of gusty winds. The time of the front is into the afternoon hours and this should allow for temps to spike in front of it. Clouds will increase and some flurries or a light snow shower may graze parts of the region later today.

Temps into the first half of the new week will head toward the 50s… again. Clouds and some showers will be on the increase by Wednesday as we start to see some of those changes showing up for early February. A big ridge of high pressure is going to go up along the west coast and this forces the jet stream to dig into the eastern half of the country. The latest GFS shows this well…

Exactly where that trough digs in is yet to be determined. I still think we could be looking at an upper level low cutting off somewhere nearby. If we assume that the GFS is playing the trough right (that’s a stretch)… then it should produce a storm in the eastern half of the country.

Both the GFS and GFS Ensembles like the idea of a storm later Friday…

The models will all show something different with each run over the next few days, so take them with a grain of salt. It gives us something to watch in the week ahead.

Looking farther down the road into February… the indices I keep tabs on are all pointing toward a wintry look for the first time this season.

A combination of a positive PNA… Negative NAO, EPO and AO is a look we have not had since last winter. Now, let’s see if February can salvage some cold and snow for winter lovers.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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