Christmas Week Weather- 7pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

We have a lot of weather to go through between now and Christmas and some of it may be wintry.

7pm Update

Good evening gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on the hyper active weather pattern kicking off as we head into Christmas week and weekend. Rain is leading the short term charge before we get into a pattern more conducive for some wintry stuff in time for the big day.

Rain is quickly working across the northern partS of the tri state this evening. This is in response to some milder air surging in from the southwest ahead of a blizzard across the southwestern states. Follow the rains here...



That same storm will roll into town Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increase in rain for everyone. Thunder? It's possible. Rain will taper off by Wednesday night.

That moment of dry weather won't last long as another system quickly develops on Thursday and rolls in from the southwest. This wasn't even showing up on the models a few days ago and when it finally showed up... it was rather wimpy. Each run today ramped this system up even more and show it farther west into our region with widespread heavy rain.

Look at the totals through Thursday...



Are you really shocked to see another heavy rain event? Didn't think so.

Back to the point I was making about the models from earlier. They are still playing catch up on the system that's only a few days out, so there is no way they are going to be able to forecast how this weekend plays out. You will see them flip and flop from run to run. That's always the case, but it is REALLY magnified this year.

I was going to break down some of the latest runs for the weekend... but it's really pointless for me to keep doing so with each update because of the differing solutions.

I have no changes in my thought process... one system later Friday into Christmas Eve with the possibility for something else Christmas Day or Monday. Each will have the potential for some snow and wintry weather. Stay tuned!

Have a great evening and take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Monday and welcome to a busy week of weather leading up to Christmas. I don't think the pattern can get more active as we have, at least, 3 systems we will be tracking over the next several days. Yes... there is likely a wintry aspect to all this as we head into Christmas weekend. To what extent is the big question.

Our weather in the short term is about to take a walk on the wet side. Clouds will be on the increase today as a major storm gets going across the southwestern states. This storm will bring a blizzard to areas from New Mexico to Kansas.

We're on the mild side of this bad boy as temps head into the 50s through early Wednesday. Showers will increase this evening across parts of the north with rain increasing for everyone late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Chilly air then works in later Wednesday and sets the stage for some cold rain for Thursday as our active pattern really kicks into high gear.

We have a deep trough slowly working in from the west and northwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. There are several disturbances diving into the base of this trough and these are hard to time. The first one looks to move in Thursday with light rain. The next comes later Friday into Christmas Eve and will bring rain or snow or a combo of the two as the cold air continues to sink in here.

It's at this point that EVERY model agrees on a storm developing late this Christmas weekend. We have the usual timing issues... but the track on this storm is very similar on each model and they all have us on the cold side of things with a snow threat.

Here's a sample of the latest runs...

GFS


GFS Ensembles


Canadian


European Christmas Eve


Here are some thoughts about the models and the setup in general...

- There are so many disturbances on the playing field it's going to make for model flips as they key on different disturbances at different times. They may try to blow up one of the earlier systems instead of the Christmas one, for instance.

- There is currently model consensus on a Christmas weekend storm and snow threat for our region. That doesn't mean this won't change in the coming days... but that's where the models are right now. What they are showing fits the pattern we have been talking about for several days.

- I am not saying you're going to have a white Christmas. I am telling you that you DO have a chance at seeing snow over the Christmas weekend.

I will have more updates later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

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