February Begins On A January Note

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Mild temps and showers will be with us for the first day of the new month.

Good Wednesday and welcome to the month of February. The flip of the calendar doesn’t mean very much in terms of changing up our weather. The short-term outlook continues to run on the mild side as we keep seeing the change to cold get pushed later and later by the forecast models. The signs are there… but it takes more than signs to totally switch this pattern.

High temps today will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the region. We do have a front crossing the area with scattered showers and maybe a thundershower or two. These will continue into the overnight hours as a wave of low pressure works eastward along the front.

The air behind this system isn’t much different from what’s ahead of it. That means temps for Thursday and Friday will stay in the 50s for highs. These look like pretty nice weather days across much of our part of the world.

The storm moving our way for the weekend is going to bring a lot of snow… for areas well to our west and north. This low should track right across us and weaken as it does so. Here’s the GFS Ensembles view of it…

That is just an ugly-looking system as it gives us a nasty weekend and has little chance at satisfying the needs of snow lovers around here. It’s just one of those years, my friends. Or is it?

For those of you who know a little bit about tracking signals… take a look at the chart below…

That is a strongly positive PNA… a very negative NAO, EPO and AO taking shape over the next few weeks. Based purely on those… I have to say WOW! That is a strong case for a very wintry pattern to develop for much of February. We haven’t seen those indices even come close to showing those kinds of numbers this winter. Those numbers were actually showing up often over the past few winters, instead.

I get that this winter pattern argues strongly against true winter conditions kicking in for an extended time. But, this is going to be a heck of a fight ahead as those indices show a very powerful signal for wintry weather.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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