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Friday Weather Thoughts- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

We have a very busy pattern ahead that has a lot of everything in it.

7pm Update

Good Friday evening and welcome to the weekend. Let's cut to the chase... we are facing a high threat for heavy rain and flooding from late Sunday through early Wednesday of next week.

A stalled out boundary will hang around the Ohio Valley during this time as waves of low pressure work northeastward through our region. This boundary will have a mega temp gradient to feed upon with arctic cold in the northern tier of states and very mild air across the southeastern states.

Widespread rains of 1"-3" will be common across the region. Parts of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio could pick up locally higher totals. This will fall upon a soggy ground and all that water will flow into our streams and rivers that are already running high.

This pattern reminds me of first week of December of 1978. That featured back to back rainstorms that lead to significant flooding along many rivers across the tri state. The second storm that year ended with a change to snow as temps took a big dive. This is actually a pretty good analog to what I think will happen this week.

I like how the European Model is handing the middle and end of the week...



That's a heck of a shot of arctic air surging into the country by the end of the week and could set up some overrunning snows at some point next weekend.

Busy, busy times ahead as this continues to be a supercharged pattern loaded with extreme events. Be patient... your time will come!

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Friday everyone. Your friendly weatherdude has been a traveling fool over the past few days and hasn't been updating as much as normal. Wait... there is no such thing as normal on here. I'm getting caught up on the past several runs of each model, so I'm only going to hit the high notes in this update.

Today and Saturday will be very nice weather days with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s today and low and mid 50s Tomorrow. Clouds will increase Saturday as rain shoots our way late Sunday and lasts into early next week.

I am going with a slower solution with a scaled down cutoff low early next week. This means we have a lot of rain coming from Sunday through Tuesday and a blast of winter to follow late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The early call on rainfall...



Heavy rains will likely cause renewed high water issues across parts of the tri state with our rivers being the prime targets. The best high water threat looks to be across our western counties.

I really like the look of the Canadian Model with how all this plays out. The GFS is following up last week's disaster of having it's worst verification scores in years with another flop of a forecast this week. The European has something similar to the Canadian and both indicate the potential for a nice little switch to now late Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air rushes in.

Here is the Canadian for Wednesday...



Notice the arctic blast showing up along the Canadian Border? That's the air mass I have been talking about that has been downplayed a lot as having no chance of impacting the weather for the eastern half of the country or locally. Well... every single model shows this coming south and engulfing much of the country by the end of next week into next weekend. That doesn't mean it will... but it's not just a figment of my imagination.

Look at the GFS Ensembles 850mb Temp Departures...



You can thank a huge ridge along the west coast of North America for dislodging the cold and changing the overall pattern toward cold and wintry. I know some folks think that just because the NAO or AO are both positive that you can't get big cold shots into our region. The winter of 1993-94 would like to have a word with those people.

A more in depth and full update coming your way later today. Have a great Friday and take care.

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