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Happy Thanksgiving Weather- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

The weather is nice... for now. Big changes will move in late this weekend into next week.

6pm Update

Good evening everyone. Here's hoping you are enjoying a wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends. The weather today has been perfect and that continues into Black Friday. Beyond that... a wintry pattern comes calling.

The forecast models continue to be split into the same two camps as what I was talking about in the last update. The American run models of the NAM and GFS are both more northern stream dominated and progressive with the system moving in late this weekend and early next week. These models show a quick hitting round of rain Saturday evening and night with some wraparound snow showers and flurries Sunday into early Monday.

The foreign models put much more emphasis on the southern stream and have a big cutoff low just to our south that meanders through into the middle of next week. That setup brings a much better shot at heavier precipitation with rain and snow.

To be honest... I think both of those camps are wrong and the end result should be something in between. The GFS Ensembles are showing something awfully close to my ideas with a cutoff low across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...



Here's how that setup plays out...



I'm not going to sit here and tell you I know how this thing will play out exactly. I can tell you that rain is likely late Saturday into Saturday night with a switch to snow at some point Sunday into Monday. How much rain or how much snow remains to be seen as there are way to many questions yet to be answered.

The longer range pattern is a cold one and there will be another system working in by the end of next week. That one is already getting my attention.

A full update comes your way late tonight. Have a great rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.

Previous Update

Happy Thanksgiving, my friends. Today is the day we give thanks for the many blessings in our lives and I want to say a big thanks to you. Many of you have been with me for years and some are relatively new here. Either way... I appreciate you guys more than you know because you are the backbone of this blog.

The weather out there today really can't get much better. High temps will be in the 50s under a partly to mostly sunny skies. We aren't being greedy with the nice stuff as much of the central and eastern parts of the country are getting some of the good stuff.

Black Friday shoppers will have no worries, either. High temps will warm into the low 60s with more in the way of sunshine. Don't forget about your friendly weatherdude when you're shopping.

This brings us to the big change coming this weekend into early next week as our pattern goes wintry. The latest models are spitting out a few different scenarios. One would be for the cold front to slam quickly through here Saturday night with a round of heavy rain switching to light snow and flurries by Sunday morning. Those flakes would continue through Monday. The GFS falls into this camp...



The model is a bit weaker with the energy dropping into the base of the trough and doesn't cut things off until just to our east. Still... it would show a quick transition from 60s Saturday to rain Saturday night to light snow and flurries and 30s for Sunday.

The other camp shows a much stronger and slower cutoff upper low right on top of us and would imply a more threatening look. The Canadian is included in this camp...



That is a slower transition from Sunday into Monday and shows heavy rain to a heavier brand of snows.

We're still another day or so before having a firm grip on how this all plays out. The fact remains that either of those solutions would give us snow at some point. How much and when remains to be seen.

There should be another system diving in here toward the middle and end of next week as we go straight into a colder than normal pattern. Both the GFS and the GFS Ensembles show this for the first of December...

GFS


GFS Ensembles


I will have another update later today. Have a wonderful thanksgiving and take care.

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