Heavy Rain To Usher In A Wintry Weekend?

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Rain will be on the increase over the next few days.

Good Tuesday everyone. We have some big weather news to share with you guys. Are you sitting down? Today is actually a calm weather day across the region!! I don’t know what to do with myself. ;) Let’s not get too used to the pleasant weather of today as we have a surge of heavy rain coming our way and this should transition into a wintry weekend.

The weather of today looks good with readings mainly in the 40s under partly sunny skies. This should be the best day of the next week or so.

A very slow-moving area of low pressure will develop across Texas over the next few days. This will throw an increasing amount of moisture our way from Wednesday through Friday. Light rain will arrive from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. The leading edge of this has the chance to start out as something frozen… especially along and north of the Ohio River. That doesn’t look like a big deal if it happens.

The bigger issue from late Wednesday into Thursday will be the threat for heavy rainfall. This has the look of a widespread 1″-2″ rain maker, with locally higher amounts. The GFS is looking soggy…

This thing is loaded with juice and could cause high water problems for some areas.

What happens behind this storm as it begins to pull away on Friday? The models are still trying to figure that much out, but there should be colder air coming in behind it with a switch to snow possible. The GFS is advertising this…

The model may be a little too quick with getting the low that far north. The GFS Ensembles average is for a slower departing low…

That will be something for us to keep an eye on as many of the models have advertised a switch to snow for a while now.

That sets us up for a wintry weekend across the state. An arctic front arrive late Saturday into early Sunday and carves out a hefty little trough. I like the look of this system as I think it can dive in and try to cause low pressure to develop just to our east. If that were to happen… this would give us a decent shot of snow. That’s a big IF at the moment, but is something to watch for in the coming days.

The GFS is hinting at that solution and the Canadian is looking the part, too.

We have a lot of weather to go through before we get to that point. I will have updates later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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