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6pm Update

Good Monday evening everyone. Mild temps are back with us as we get set to close out the month. If you’re a fan of a spring feel… you will love the weather we have set aside for you on Tuesday. All of this takes place as some major changes begin to show up on the February horizon.

Highs on Tuesday will range from 60-65 in many areas. Clouds will be on the increase and some showers may break out by the evening hours. Those showers will continue into Wednesday as a wave of low pressure works through here.

After that… it’s all about the location and timing of the upper level low that is expected to close off by the weekend. That’s always a struggle for model and forecaster and this is no different. The European Model is getting back to bringing this system through here over the weekend…

Take that and ANY model with a grain of salt. Wild swings will continue to take place from run to run and model to model. That’s the nature of the beast.

I’m actually growing much more confident on the period after the weekend as the indices continue to point toward a deep trough in the eastern US. The models are also locking in on this potential. The GFS brings the frozen tundra into the country by the end of next week…

If the indices are to be believed… we have the potential for some extreme options for February and early March. That’s a big IF as they are going up against a seasonal trend that has not been kind to cold and snow lovers.

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday everyone. We are about ready to kick the month of January to the curb and many snow lovers would likely like to kick it even farther than that. The month has been a rather mild one, so it’s only fitting we send it out on a mild note. February is just around the corner and the pattern shows signs of trying to give the snow and cold folks something to talk about.

The short-term is more of the same. Highs today will range from the low to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. Overall… this is a great day taking shape. Tuesday is going to try to go above and beyond today’s weather as we have a good shot at hitting 60 degrees. Yep… 60 on the last day of January sounds about par for the course.

We begin to see some changes into the middle of the week. Clouds will increase on Wednesday as a few showers try to develop. Temps will still be mild with readings in the 50s. The showers are ahead of a weak wave of low pressure that passes through here later Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will come down a few degrees behind this system for the second half of the week.

The weekend is an interesting one as I fully expect a big upper level low to cut off at somewhere across our region. The exact placement of this system will be the big determining factor on where a storm develops. With a significant change to the overall pattern across North America taking place… the models are going to struggle big time. Add in a possible closed low and you will get some wild swings from run to run and model to model.

That said… here’s a look at where the latest GFS run thinks the upper low winds up…

The NAVY NOGAPS is now the most threatening of the current model runs…

It appears I bragged on the European Model too quickly. It had been very consistent with the setup for next weekend… then decided to keep the upper low way to the west. Like I said… get used to some wild swings over the next few days.

The transformation to a big ridge up the west coast of North America will continue over the next few weeks. This should force a deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. Check out the 500mb height anomalies from the GFS Ensembles for the second week of February…

That’s some serious blocking showing up across the west and up into Alaska. You also see some blocking near Greenland showing up and that’s another good sign of a colder pattern around here.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.