Merry Christmas Update- 7pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

The chance for snow next week is on the rise.

7pm Update

Merry Christmas evening. Here's hoping Santa was good to you guys and you got everything you asked for. Many of you were probably asking for some snow and it looks like that order is delayed by a few days. Dang lost packages!!

A storm system will come rolling our way from the southwest Monday night and Tuesday. This storm looks to track just to our south and east as it turns into a nice sized storm along the east coast. Rain breaks out by Tuesday morning and should change to snow from the west and north during the day as colder air sweeps in.

This is a setup that's likely to give many areas a light accumulating snowfall. Is it a coating where you live or a few inches? I will fine tune that later tonight and Monday.

The GFS Ensembles are the most bullish on the snow threat...



The GFS isn't too far behind...



Most everyone should see snow flying from Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours and I will be watching for a "deformation zone" to set up somewhere nearby. This would be an area where some enhancement in the snow would be possible.

Northwesterly winds later Tuesday night and Wednesday should keep flurries and snow showers going.

There appears to be another clipper type system that may arrive late Friday into early Saturday and could provide some flakes.

The models continue to advertise a major amplification in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country to start 2012. If this happens... a significant shot of cold air and storm would be the result. The European Model has some eye candy...



A full update comes your way later today. Merry Christmas and take care.

Previous Update

Merry Christmas everyone. I hope you make this the best Christmas ever and that Santa is good to you. If not... there's nothing wrong with a little coal in your stocking. We have a very nice weather day in progress as really start to focus on a storm that's set to impact the region over the next few days.

This system is now taking on a MUCH more wintry look as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will have a decent amount of cold air to work with and should provide a swath of snow north and west of its track. That COULD include parts of our area.

The models certainly pass the look test...

European Model


Canadian Model


GFS Ensembles


GFS


This system is certainly getting a lot more of my attention as that's usually a track that gives us some snow and we do have sufficient cold air diving into the storm. Odds favor rain moving in Monday night with a mix and switch to snow Tuesday. That's all I can tell you at this point.

There should be a system diving in from the northwest behind this departing storm and that's something to watch. The models are also going wild with a possible storm and deep trough as we start out the new year...



It looks like mother nature is finally flipping the switch to winter! I will have another update very late today, so be sure to check back. Christmas or not... your friendly weatherdude is still on the job for you guys.

Have a wonderful day and Merry Christmas. Take care.

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