Good evening everyone. Heavy rain will continue to pull on away from the tri state this evening allowing us to focus more on the weather of the next few days. The big news is that the GFS continues to try to pull a Christmas miracle with the weekend system.
My last update showed how the two systems were staying sperate long enough to keep a storm from forming. Each run of the GFS shows more and more interaction between these two disturbances...
The end result is a weak storm skirting us with some moisture...
If we can get that northern branch system to dig farther south and fully phase with the system moving out of the southern plains... we would be in business.
The GFS Ensembles are also trending in the same direction as the operational GFS.
It should be noted that these are the only two models trying to bring the storm back to life. All the others keep the southern plains system hanging around that region until the middle of next week. Many of them say that's when we would have to watch for a storm.
The GFS has been all over the place this week... so let's not get too excited by it's trend. It does give us something to watch for with the latest computer runs tonight.
I do like what the GFS shows for Friday...
There is some low level moisture hanging tough and that means a lot of clouds and even some sprinkles or flurries.
Have a great evening and take care.
Good Thursday everyone. We interrupt this regularly scheduled blog to bring you NOT BREAKING NEWS. Another round of heavy rain will move into our region today as a fast moving low pressure works through the area. It has been an amazing year for rainfall across this entire region and this will only add to the record yearly totals for many areas.
I will have some words on Christmas weekend coming up in a bit. This is a busy travel day across the region and the country and heavy rain means a slow go at it... especially this afternoon and this evening.
Low pressure will track across Tennessee into Virginia by early Friday. That's a snow track in a normal winter... this has not been a normal start to winter. That means we get rain and you'll like it. A half to one inch of water will fall from the skies today and tonight and you can track it all...
Temps today will be in the upper 40s to near 50.
Colder air moves in for Friday with many areas holding between 40 and 45 degrees for afternoon highs. There will be some leftover moisture, so a light shower or evening flurry can't be ruled out.
Christmas Eve looks seasonally chilly with highs again 40-45.
The models continue to swing and miss on the system for Christmas. Check out just how close the GFS is to having the two jet streams phase...
You can clearly see the two systems staying separate through Christmas day. It wouldn't take much adjustment to get those two together and for the storm ro reappear. Time is running out.
I will have updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.