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Rain FINALLY Moves In As We Watch Model Madness- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Locally heavy rains move in today.

6pm Update

Good rainy Monday evening everyone. As heavy rain continues to slowly work intoour region. Many area of southern Ohio and northeastern Kentucky have picked up mroe than an inch of rain already. As the rain works east... it's time to turn our attention toward the increasing threat for accumulating snows for parts of the region.

The period in question is from late Wednesday into early Thursday as a fast moving low pressure develops to our south and works into the mid atlantic states. Some thoughts on this...

- The models seem to be settling on the above scenario but differ in track and intensity.

- There seems to be room for a slight shift north and west with the track of this low. This is backed up by the potent energy aloft and a 3 year trend of similar storms.

- Here is a rough outline of the odds of seeing accumulating snow from this system...



- None of that is set in stone and those lines will move around as the track of the low is established.

- That is for accumulating snows and has nothing to do with totals. There is the potential for some areas to pick up on several inches of slushy snow Wednesday night. That could prompt a threat designation for some.

- It looks like the precipitation starts as rain Wednesday afternoon before making a quick transition to snow by evening. This will be a very fast mover!

- As you can tell by the lines... I am expecting a sharp cutoff to the back edge of whatever accumulating snows impact the tri state.

There you have it... let's sit back and watch the trends of the models into Tuesday. I suspect they are not done correcting themselves.

I will have updates as needed. Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday everybody and welcome to the first full week of December. Things are FINALLY going to turn soggy today as a wall of rain moves in from the west. This will cause some locally heavy rains for many areas.

We are also keeping a close eye on the model madness that's going on with the potential for a mid week storm that COULD bring snow our way. More on that mess coming up in a bit.

The heavy rain is of main concern today and tonight. A slow moving front is working eastward as ripples of low pressure work northeastward along it. The heaviest rain will slowly work into eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio as the morning wears on. It will then overspread the rest of the region this afternoon and evening. Rainfall of 1"-2" will be possible through Tuesday across our western counties with around an inch across the east.

Let's track the rain...





Colder air will work in behind the heaviest rains with a definite chill in the air for Tuesday as a lot of areas stay in the 40s. This is where the models begin having issues.

Let's set this up for ya. A few days ago... the European Model and several others were forecasting a more potent low to develop just to our southeast and east Wednesday into Thursday, putting us in line for snow. Those models then jumped off board and showed no storm. It was at that point that the GFS and NAM decided to pick up the storm torch and run with it with both showing a healthy snow event.

The latest run from the GFS then jumped ship and showed no storm at all. The NAM held serve...



While the GFS gave up on the storm... it's own Ensembles average continues to show some action here...



The UKMET also likes the storm idea...



The European Model is slowing coming back around to the idea of a storm to our east...



Just take a look at the models above and notice how they all have a common theme of actually showing a storm, but the slightest difference in each of their timing and track has a BIG difference on our actual weather.

Let's sit back and watch for the model trends of today and see what they bring us. We can't control it so we might has have fun watching it.

Oh and the big blast of cold is still coming late Friday into Saturday...



That should have snow showers and squalls accompanying it as it blows into town.

More updates coming your way later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

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