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Raining On Our Christmas Parade?- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Will the rainy weather of the next few days cost us a chance at a white Christmas?

6pm Update

Good Wednesday evening to one and all. The final day of fall felt more like spring out there as showers and thunderstorms and temps in the low 60s were noted for some. Now comes another soaker of a storm for Thursday. What about Christmas weekend? Is all hope lost?

Let's break it down...

- A fast moving system works from southwest to northeast across the state Thursday with heavy rain likely. Many areas will pick up an additional half to one inch of water. Yippee!

- A weak front will be stretched out across the state on Friday and this allows for colder air to bleed in. This is likely to have enough juice for a rain or snow shower into the afternoon and evening. This shows up on the latest GFS...



- What happens after this is still up in the air. The models are awfully close to phasing energy across Texas with energy dropping in from the northwest. If they do this... you get your Christmas Day storm to form. The 6z GFS was doing everything it could to bring this system back...



Let's see how this plays out into Thursday and Friday as I still don't think the models have a good grasp on how to handle all the energy that's out there.

A full update comes your way later tonight, as usual. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

12:30pm Update

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Here's a look...

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

More updates as needed. Take care.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Wednesday everyone. We have a rainy next few days ahead of us and the dreary weather is likely to play right into the moods of snow lovers across our region. The small chance we had for a white Christmas is even smaller today. More on that in a bit.

Low pressure is working into the Ohio Valley today and will bring widespread showers and even some isolated thunderstorms. There is even the slightest chance that one or two of the storms could be on the strong side.

Let's track the springtime weather...







Highs today are going to be warm with reading in the upper 50s and low 60s. Yes... it is 4 days before Christmas.

As this storm moves away later tonight... things may dry out for a few hours before the next system sweeps in on Thursday. This storm is looking stronger and stronger and will bring heavy rains across the entire region into Thursday night.

Many areas will pick up 1"-2" of rain by Friday morning. Both the NAM and GFS are all over this...


As I mentioned earlier... the Thursday storm continues to get stronger with each model run. A stronger storm throws the rest of the forecast cycle for a loop as it changes the whole dynamics of the weekend setup. The models are still trying to sort through it all... but even the European lost the Christmas Day storm with the latest run. Ironically... the GFS is getting close to having a storm again.

It's still too early to pronounce this next system dead on arrival... but it's on life support right now. The energy responsible for this system is just now getting into an area where the models can finally get a good sample of what they are dealing with. #keephopealive

Your friendly weatherdude is a snow lover from November through January, so my window doesn't have much time left. Old man winter had better do something before I throw the switch into March Madness and Spring Training mode.

I will have updates as needed. Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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