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Thoughts On The Last Week Of Weather For 2011- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

A storm system looks to bring rain and snow our way the next few days.

6pm Update

Good Monday evening gang. Snow is on the way to the tri state as we head into late Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is all in response to a storm system rolling out of the south and up the east coast over the next few days.

Rain will develop overnight and will continue into early Tuesday before mixing with and changing to snow as cold air quickly dives in. Light accumulating snows are a good bet for much of the regio in the late afternoon and evening. There is likely to be a band of moderate to heavy snow working eastward behind the low. This is the 'deformation zone' area I talked about over the weekend and this is something for us to watch. Areas getting under this can pick up a quick inch or two of slushy snow.

Northwesterly winds will set in Tuesday night and early Wednesday with snow showers and flurries bringing another chance for a light accumulation.This may even get a little push from Lake Michigan and you can actually see that on the last panel of the NAM...



The GFS Ensembles are very similar...



I will get a snow map out with the overnight update. Temps will dip into the 20s by Wednesday morning and that should cause some slick spots to develop on area roads.

Looking down the road we find a major trough digging into the eastern half of the country as we start the new year. This should provide a heck of a blast of cold with several snow chances next week.

European Model


Canadian Model


Every model is all over a deep trough across the east next week. Every model not named the GFS, that is. The model only shows it every other run... but it's the GFS. I read a discussion from NWS in Jackson calling the European the outlier with no support from any other model. If by any other model they mean the GFS then they are correct. The GFS is actually the outlier with no support period. Well... every other run of the GFS, anyway. Confused yet? Good... that's how I like it.

I will have a full update later tonight. Until then... track the rain into town...



Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday to one and all and welcome to the last week of 2011. It's hard to believe we are about to wrap up another year and the year looks to be ending on an active note. That's a fitting way to finish out a hyper active weather year across our region.

A storm system is gaining strength to our southwest today and will roll our way later tonight into Tuesday. The track of this low is one that will bring rain to snow across our part of the world as the storm passes by just to our south and east. The models show this very well...

GFS Ensembles



GFS



Here's a breakdown...

- Rain arrives late tonight with locally heavy downpours likely through Tuesday morning.

- The storm deepens and pulls in colder air from the north and west and will result in rain mixing with and changing to wet snow during the late afternoon and evening.

- A light accumulation will be possible across most of the region. I will also be watching for what's known as a 'deformation zone' working across the area on the backside of the low. That could mean a band of heavier snow for some.

- Temps will hit the mid 20s by Wednesday morning and that mean some slick spots may develop on area roads. Some leftover snow showers or flurries should be around to start the day... especially in the east.

- There will be a couple of weak systems diving in from the northwest later this week. These may try to bring something light our way.

- The models continue to point to a big buckle in the jet stream to begin the new year and this should mean a shot of cold and snow.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.

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