Tracking Rain and Looking Toward Christmas

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Soaking rains move back in today as colder air gets set to blow into town.

Good Thursday everyone. It's another soaking rain working across the tri state today as a strong cold front slowly works in from the west. This front ushers in much colder air for the next several days and even has the hint of some winter with it. What about week leading up to Christmas? I have you covered with the possibilities.

Our short term forecast is all about rain, rain and more rain. Many areas will pick up a half to one inch of water today and you may even hear some thunder. Say what? Yep... a clap of thunder is possible as this front works in.

Let's track the rain...

Temps today will hang into the mid and upper 50s as winds really begin to crank up. The front swings in overnight and our temps take a big tumble of 20 degrees in just a few hours. Readings will be in the mid and high 30s by morning.

The cold front stalls out just to our south as a wave of low pressure works along it. This will throw more clouds and light rain back in here on Friday and several models show the air being just cold enough for a few flakes to mix in later in the day and early evening. The GFS Ensembles is in this camp...

Highs won't stray too far from either side of 40. You will also notice a VERY weak system across the upper midwest. A few runs show this bringing some snow flurries into town Saturday night or Sunday morning.

The models are all looking different with how they handle the storm coming out Tuesday and Wednesday.

- GFS Ensembles are not impressed with it at all and have a weak system rolling through.

- GFS brings overrunning snows in here Monday night before a change to rain with the low tracking over our heads Tuesday.

- The Canadian and European Models take a storm just to our west with rain Tuesday and a nice shot of cold and some snow for Wednesday.

I will focus more on that over the next few days.

The models are actually in much better agreement on the end of next week into Christmas Weekend. Believe it or not... most show a cold and possibly snowy pattern. The GFS Ensembles have been all over this for a while...

The Canadian Model strongly agrees...

Hmmmmm... that's a very interesting look. Let's see if it holds.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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