Watching The Mid Week Snow Threat- 8pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Rainy conditions today will give way to a wintry Wednesday for some areas.

8pm Update

Good evening everyone. Things continue to come together for the first decent snowfall of the season for much of the tri state. I don't have any changes to the earlier snow map I posted, so I wanted to show you what some of the computer models are thinking for snowfall.

NAM


GFS


The latest runs will be rolling in soon enough and I will also have a full update coming your way tonight with an updated call for snowfall.

Have a great evening and take care.

 

4pm Update

NWS in Jackson, Ky has put out a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the Big Sandy Valley. The NWS in Charleston has NOTHING for any of the counties we serve.

1pm Update

Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. We continue to watch our mid week storm that is going to bring a swath of snow into the state. The storm track is pretty much set now as we did see this thing trend west from a few days ago.

Here's a brief breakdown...

- A stalled out boundary is draped across the region and will slowly work eastward into Wednesday.

- Low pressure will develop along this front early Wednesday across the Carolinas and lift northward into Wednesday night.

- This will be a fast moving storm that starts out with rain early Wednesday before mixing with and changing to snow in the afternoon and evening as cold air wraps in.

- The best chance for accumulating snows will be across southeastern Ky, southern WV and into the WV mountains. That said... flakes will be flying all the way north into the buckeye state.

Here's the first call...



- If we had a colder ground , I would probably go for a little more than what's being shown. There will be quite a bit of melting and the best accumulations will be on elevated surfaces and in the higher elevations.

- This will be a very slushy snow that will fall in a 6-8 hour window for many. We really need to watch the mountains and southern WV as this snow may fall fast and furious.

- Temps by Thursday morning will dip into the 20s meaning some slick travel will be possible.

I will have updates as needed later today and will freshen up the snow forecast map as we get closer. Have a great afternoon and take care

Previous Update

Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making us your online stop for weather. We continue to keep close tabs on a potential snow maker for parts of oure region  Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is a potent little storm that looks better and better the closer we get to it.

We have a slow moving front draped across the region today and this will be the focal point for on and off rain and drizzle. Temps will be on the chilly side with readings generally staying in the 40s.

This same boundary slowly slips to our east into Wednesday as low pressure develops along it. This is something I've been talking about as a possibility for several days now and the models have been serving up their usual flips and flops, but are slowly keying in on how this all plays out.

One of the things to really watch for is the energy aloft. This is a tightly wound upper system that even tries to close off as it passes across the area on Wednesday...



The look of the upper levels argues for an inland surface low with a lot of moisture to work with. This is exactly what many of the models are now showing. The GFS and NAM look a tad too progressive for my taste and the rest of the models love the inland low idea for late Wednesday.

European Model


Canadian Model


UKMET


All of those models look very similar with the track of the low and would allow for the precip shield to expand fairly far to the west. A quick breakdown...

- I expect rain early Wednesday for many areas with a touch of some snow mixing in.

- Rain will change to snow during the afternoon as cold air wraps into the backside of the strengthening low pressure to our east.

- Snow would continue into Wednesday night before quickly ending before from the west.

- How far west can the rain and snow shield get? That is yet to be determined. How about the odds of getting accumulating snow?



- Whatever falls will be on the wet and slushy side, but could really add up across parts of southeastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia into the WV Mountains. I will get a first call map out later today.

The plunge of modified arctic air is still on the menu to start out the weekend. This means the coldest air of the season moves in and will likely be accompanied by snow showers and squalls from Friday evening into Saturday morning.

I leave you with the your daily weather trackers...





Updates to come your way later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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