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Weekend Winter Storm Threat - 8pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

I continue to focus on the chance for a weekend storm to bring wintry weather our way.

8pm Update

Good Thursday evening. The Winter Storm Threat continues for Saturday night into Sunday for much of the region. The latest run of the GFS went crazy with the snowfall forecast and I wanted to throw this piece of eye candy your way.

Here ya go…

Let’s be clear… this is one run of one model and I am in no way endorsing what it’s showing. It’s fun to post and talk about because something like that is, at least, a possibility in a perfect snow world. IF something like that worked out… it wouldn’t be a good thing because that would cause some major issues because of how wet the snow would be.

This thing is a long way from being anywhere close to being a for sure thing for our region. It is all about the exact track of the low. A track too far to the south means a glancing blow of light snow. A track too far to the north and it’s more rain than snow.

Winter Storm Threat continues and we will upgrade or downgrade things as we get closer to the weekend.

Have a great evening and take care.

1:30pm Update

Good Thursday afternoon everybody. It’s been a long time coming, but we now have our first Winter Storm THREAT of the season. Threat level means there is an increased risk for a winter storm to have a significant impact on our region. That does not mean it will happen, but does mean the risk is there.

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m thinking…

A storm track from Louisiana to the Carolinas is one that usually delivers accumulating snows across our region. The EXACT track of this storm will be the big determining factor in who will get the heaviest stripe of snow that will fall late Saturday night into early Sunday.

Don’t go running to the store for bread and milk, just yet. Well… unless you are out of both. :) I will have updates as needed, so check back.

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

Previous Update

Good Thursday to all my fellow weather lovers. Our day is off and running on a soggy note across the region as a weak system works through. My attention continues to be more focused on what’s ahead for the weekend as we have a developing storm to contend with. This has the potential to become the first “winter storm threat” of the season.

Let’s start with what we have going on out there today. Showers will be rather common into the early afternoon hours. These rains will slowly diminish and we may try to break out into a partly cloudy sky before the day is over across the west. Temps should range from the low 50s.

Friday looks to be a good day with temps in the upper 40s with partly sunny skies. Don’t be fooled by this nice looking start to the weekend because things may turn wintry in a hurry by Saturday night and Sunday.

We have been talking about a potential weekend storm for several days now and all the models are falling in line with a similar solution. That is for a storm to develop across the deep south and lift northeastward into the Carolinas by Sunday. That is usually a great track for getting a decent snowfall around our part of the world.

The GFS has been very steady with this track for the past few days. Here’s the latest run…

Taken verbatim… that’s rain Saturday evening with a rapid switch to heavy, wet snow Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS Ensembles mean agrees…

The Canadian Model had been showing this storm missing us to the south. That is no longer the case for Saturday evening into Sunday morning…

This is a setup for us to continue to keep a very close eye on. Don’t get caught up on looking at the rain verses snow maps or the thermal profile because the models won’t catch up to all that until Friday or Saturday.

I will have updates as needed, so check back to see if we have the first upgrade of the winter. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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