Good Thursday and welcome to the final month of the year.Today is also the beginning of meteorological winter and it's starting out on a rather tame note. Tha's about to change as we have a very active and wintry pattern taking shape for much of the country over the next few weeks.
Things start out nice enough today with temps rebounding into the upper 40s for highs. We will do it again on Friday with similar temps under partly sunny skies. Saturday continues to look like the warmest day we will see for a while with temps in the 50-55 degree range for many.
This mild day is ahead of a big trough digging in by Sunday and Monday. This will lead to widespread rains developing Sunday and Continuing into Monday. What happens at this point depends on how slow this dip in the jet stream works through the region. Does it cutoff somewhere nearby or does it slowly work through?
There is a heck of a shot of cold air behind this trough with many models showing 850mb temps of -10 to -15c. This will ensure a switch to snow at some point and how much snow will depend on how the trough acts.
The GFS has been alternating between a closed low and a very slow moving system. The first part of the storm from the GFS would be the heavy rain threat. Check out the latest rain totals it's spitting out...
Our ground is saturated and our streams and rivers are full, so this is something we need to keep a very close eye on.
The run we're talking about does not close the upper low off and instead VERY slowly works the trough through here on Tuesday with cold air meeting the back of the precip. The end result from this run is snow on the ground for the much of the region...
As usual... that's for entertainment purposes only as the model will change with each and every run.
The GFS Ensembles are even slower with this system and have more of snow look to them with moisture overrunning the front into the cold air...
The Canadian Model is much more progressive with a switch to some snow later Monday and some leftover snow showers and flurries for Tuesday. It appears to leave some southern stream energy behind before bringing it out for some snow for Thursday.
I am just getting a look at the new European Model as of this writing. It goes the cutoff low route with rain into Tuesday and a switch to snow for later Tuesday and Wednesday. The look of the European is one that wants to put a thumping snow across the Ohio Valley.
I can't tell you which of those solutions will be right, but they all have a common theme. Heavy rain to some snow as the coldest air of the season, so far, works in. I can't tell you how much or exactly when your hometown will get what. You will know when I think I know.
Have a great Thursday and take care.