Which Forecast Model Blinks First?- 3pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

It's a battle of the computer models on when winter arrives.


Good Friday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by for an update on the staring contest between the American Models and the foreign models. All of them decided to blink some today as they are, at least, slightly different from their earlier solutions.

The GFS made the biggest correction as it goes back to the monster cutoff low idea it had up until a few days ago...

This particular run of the GFS means heavy rains move in late Saturday into early Sunday with a slow transition to snow from southwest to northeast into Monday. This also implies a much greater shot at putting snow on the ground...

Let's not go crazy about that map since this is ONLY one run of one model and it's probably still having issues and will change over the next few runs.

It is MUCH more believable than some of the runs of late... but still has some work to do.
The European and Canadian models are still slower and farther south with the closed upper low. They are a little farther to the north and would mean heavy rain changing to snow at some point with accumulations possible.

Again...I think all the models have a few more blinks left to go before they see clearly and through the same eyes. 
I'm off work today... but still doing work for you guys and will have more updates as needed. Enjoy the rest of your Friday and take care.
Previous Update

Good Friday everyone. Many folks are packing the malls and shopping centers across the land and doing so with very nice shopping weather. They are getting their entertainment from finding bargains as we have our fun seeing which of the forecast models blinks first. It's a monumental stare down between the American models and every other model known to man.

Before we get to that.. the weather today into much of Saturday looks pretty darn good. We are likely to see some dense fog and low clouds early today and this may be slow to burn off. It will leave us with a mainly sunny afternoon sky and temps near 60.

Saturday looks windy with low 60s and an increase in clouds. Rain may move close to our western counties by late evening.

This brings us to one of the greatest model battles I've seen in a long, long time. The NAM and GFS models continue to show a more northern stream dominated system moving in for Sunday into Monday. . They blast a cold front through here Saturday night with rain ahead of the boundary and a switch to snow behind it with snow showers and flurries for Sunday and Monday.


GFS Snowfall

The NAM is very similar to what is being shown above.

The European, Canadian, Nogaps, JMA, etc. all show something totally different with a cutoff upper level low across the Tennessee Valley Sunday that works over top of us Monday into Tuesday. This would imply a MUCH slower and more moisture laden storm that would put down heavy rains and the chance for some heavier snows for some.

Canadian Model

It will be interesting to see how the staring contest plays out today. Maybe we should take bets on which model blinks first. As I mentioned in a previous post... the truth is likely somewhere in between.

It's a fun pattern ahead as there is more action in the pipeline for the end of next week.

I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

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