Wild Weather Changes On Tap- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Our weather pattern is about to take a walk on the wintry side.

6pm Update

Good Tuesday evening gang. The forecast over the next several days looks to play out like we’ve been talking about here on the blog. A big rainmaker moves in for Wednesday with a blast of winter for Thursday and Friday and a weekend clipper. I love it when a plan comes together. :)

Rain moves in from southwest to northeast overnight and continues into Wednesday as low pressure works right on top of us. Heavy rains of an inch or so will be possible for some areas. There may be just enough energy with this low to produce some thunder!

The arctic front arrives on the scene late Thursday and will pack quite the punch. The system is looking more and more dynamic as we get closer to it and that means there is a great chance for widespread light snow and squalls from late Thursday into Friday. Temps Thursday will run in the 40s for many and  will dive quickly into the 20s as the front passes in the evening. Winds are going to really crank up as the snows break out.

I have been saying most of the moisture will be BEHIND the front and that’s exactly how it looks, right now. The NAM and GFS are both coming in MUCH wetter and colder as we get closer. I really like what the NAM is doing…

This is a dynamic setup and you can see most of the precipitation is behind the arctic front and will be in the form of snow. There is actually some enhancement showing up Thursday night into early Friday as we get the passage of the thermal min and a thickness trough. That model shows -20c 850mb air near the Ohio River early Friday. That’s impressive, folks.

This keep snow showers and squalls kicking into Friday with temps struggling in the low and mid 20s after starting out in the teens. Winds are going to CRANK and wind chills will be near zero at times.

I do expect accumulations out of this and this should be enough for some delays or cancellations on Friday.

The weekend clipper continues to show up on most of the models and the GFS has even sniffed out what the European has been cooking…

There will likely be a swath of accumulating light snow along and just to the north of the clipper track. We’ll see where that sets up in the Ohio Valley as we get a little closer.

A full update comes your way later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our pattern is about to undergo a rather drastic change as we leave the boring days behind us for a more exciting brand of weather. This will include heavy rain and a blast of arctic air and some snow before the week is over.

Today is one heck of a nice day with temps in the 50s and partly sunny skies. Clouds will roll in from the southwest tonight with rain quickly developing. This is from a strong low pressure that will ride right on top of us into Wednesday and bring heavy rainfall to our region. Many areas may pick up an inch or better of water through Wednesday night.

The wintry portion of the show gets started on Thursday as an arctic front swings eastward across region. The arrival of the front will be during the early afternoon hours in the west and will reach the far east by early evening. Temps ahead of the front will spike toward the low 40s, while temps behind it drop into the 20s. Winds are going to really crank during this time, leading to a colder feel.

The European Model continues to be rock solid with the upper level low closing off across the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. This has several pieces of energy rotating around it and each of these create lift, which in turn creates bouts of light snow and snow showers/squalls. Here’s the Euro for Thursday Evening…

Check out how strong that upper love is on the top left panel. Now, check out the Relative Humidity levels on the bottom two panels. That’s the look of widespread light snow and squalls behind the arctic front on Thursday evening. The model then shows snow showers and squalls into Friday and has the clipper playing some role in our weather later Saturday.

The Canadian Model mimics the Thursday and Friday forecast from the European. Check out the coverage on the snow from this model…

There will be a fluff factor will come into play as that is a heck of a cold shot. 850mb Temps are forecast to -16c to -18c across our region.

How about the GFS? It’s still in the process of getting its act together and is just now figuring out there will be a closed upper low across our region…

Two things should happen with the GFS and NAM over the next few days. The temp forecasts from them will grow colder and they will begin to show more precipitation.

The GFS Ensembles are much wetter than the poor GFS…

How much snow will you get where you live? That’s still to be determined as we have to wait and see exactly how it all plays out. You are not going to get a big snowstorm out of this and there was never a chance of that happening.

Speaking of snowstorms… the phantom snowstorm on the GFS has disappeared. This is why I keep trying to get you guys to look at ALL the models. ;)

Canada is about to go completely into the deep freeze over the next week and that air is just itching to come south into much of the United States. The European Model really wants to unleash the beast…

That’s some wicked cold entering the northern plains!!

I will have another update later today. Have a fantastic Tuesday and take care.

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