Winter Storm Thoughts- 6pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Numerous updates will come your way today.

6pm Update

Good evening everyone. A winter storm is working our way from the southwest and will begin to impact the area late tonight into Sunday. This storm will deliver a heavy, wet snowfall for much of southeastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia. This is the area now under a Winter Storm Warning.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for counties just to the north of the warning counties. The warning and advisory look to be spot on with my thinking…

I will have a final call for snowfall coming later tonight and that will, as usual, be the forecast of record.

The HPC snowfall outlooks are fairly bullish on this event…

Don’t forget to check out the radars, currents and weather cams at the top of the page. Those will help you track our developing winter storm.

Check back later tonight for the Final Call For Snowfall and my latest thoughts. Have a great evening and take care.

1pm Update

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. We have quite the little computer forecast model battle going on between the NAM and the GFS. One delivers a big snow blow to much of the region, while the other says it's mainly across the south.

In the blue corner... the NAM:

In the red corner... The GFS:

That is a nice little difference we are seeing with the current models. The interesting thing is that I can find other model support for each of them. The one constant in both runs is that southeastern Ky into southern WV is in line for a significant snowfall. That's pretty much a give. The battleground will be farther north and west.

My last snowfall forecast was basically a compromise between these two models. I will see how the afternoon runs look and then put out an updated snow map.

So... who ya got in this model battle royal? The NAM or the GFS? Let's hear from you.

More updates coming... take care.

Previous Update

Good Saturday, winter weather lovers. We have a major winter storm set to impact parts of the region late tonight through Sunday evening. I don’t have any major changes to my train of thought with this system, but I do have a few cosmetic changes to the snowfall map.

These changes are routine and I will have more to come as this storm gets closer and shows itself a little better. Here’s my latest forecast…

The differences to that map are rather modest when compared to my earlier call. I did push the lines a little farther to the south, but not by much. I also freshened up the totals a bit to reflect current data trends. Overall… my confidence is rather high.

Here’s how your friendly weather dude sees things…

- Temps today will hit the 50s with an increase in clouds. It won’t feel much like a winter storm is approaching. Enjoy it!

- Light rain will move in from southwest to northeast late tonight and will quickly change to snow by daybreak Sunday. This process may take just a little longer in southeastern Ky into central WV and that’s something to watch for.

- There will be a super-duper sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the accumulating snows. This is the one area I am not very confident in, at all. I can honestly see how this moisture gets much farther north than the line I have and there are a few models showing this. Wherever it sets up… it will be very distinct.

- Heavy, wet snow will really get going Sunday into Sunday evening across eastern Kentucky and the southern half of West Virginia. This is the area that can get slammed by this storm. If these totals are realized… downed trees and power lines will be possible.

- Snow will gradually taper off from west to east Sunday evening and night.

Today will feature multiple updates and a likely tweet storm. I will have, at least, two more updated snowfall maps coming your way before the first flakes start flying. I can assure you there will be changes to the map you see above. That’s always the case in snow forecasting. ;)

Check back for updates and have a great Saturday. Take care.

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