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6pm Update

Good Friday evening to one and all. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for much of central and eastern Kentucky for late Saturday night into Sunday for the potential for several inches of heavy, wet snow.

Here’s the watch…

I’m sure the NWS will be monitoring the northern edge of the accumulating snow and will add or subtract some counties. There will probably be an advisory added just north of the watch or eventual warning.

My First Call For Snowfall map isn’t holding a whole lot back…

There is going to be one heck of a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the accumulating snow. Pinpointing exactly where that will be is going to be a tough call and may not be known until we can actually see the radar Sunday.

Areas across southeastern Kentucky into southern West Virginia are in line for the POTENTIAL for a major snowstorm that could bring down trees and power lines. The southern edge of the 6″-12″ swath may be impacted by when rain changes to snow early Sunday.

I will be updating the snowfall map as we get closer to the storm, so you can be sure there will be some changes to the lines and the forecast totals.

Have a great evening and take care.

1pm Update

Good Friday afternoon. My confidence for a major weekend winter storm is increasing. This storm has the potential to cause major issues across much of the region due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow. We continue to run in Winter Storm Threat mode Saturday night and Sunday… but an upgrade to Alert isn’t too far away.

The midday models show a crushing snowstorm for many…

NAM

GFS

Those maps aren’t very different from one another and you also get an idea of the amazingly sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the snow shield. It’s too early to tell where this sets up, but 50 miles could mean the difference in nothing and 10″ of snow.

If the totals on those maps are realized… power outages would become widespread, roads would be closed and trees would come down. That is IF we actually get that much snow. It might be a good idea for folks along and south of Interstate 64 to start taking some precautions to be on the safe side.

First Call For Snowfall map comes out later today. Take care.

Previous Update

Good Friday to one and all. We continue with a Winter Storm Threat for Saturday night and Sunday. The setup continues to point toward the potential for several inches of heavy, wet snow across our part of the world and I imagine an upgrade to an Alert will be coming later today or Saturday. That’s when I should get a better handle on the exact track of the low and have a better idea on accumulations and placement.

Here’s a look at my updated threat map…

A few thoughts…

- The threat is for the potential for a heavy, wet snowfall of 4″ or more inches. The possibility is there for double-digit snowfall totals for some areas if the storm works out according to plan. It is only a possibility as of now.

- Low pressure will develop across Texas and Louisiana Saturday and lift northeastward into the Carolinas by Sunday afternoon.

- Clouds will increase on Saturday and temps will hit the 50s. Yes, we will be in the 50s with the threat of a snowstorm looming.

- Temps will then drop to 32 or below by daybreak Sunday and remain below freezing much of the day. Monday morning may be the coldest of the winter, so far.

- Precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast Saturday night. This may begin as light rain, but will quickly change to heavy, wet snow and continue through Sunday. This snow may be very heavy at times.

- Areas getting in on 5″ or more of snow will face possible power and tree problems.

- There will be a sharp cutoff to the northern extent of the accumulating snowfall.

- The forecast is HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of the low. Once I can get a better handle on the track, I will put out a first call for snowfall map. That should be coming later today.

To illustrate what a small change in the track of the low can mean for snowfall totals… check out these model forecasts…

NAM

GFS

The model picture should become much more clear later today. I will have updates as needed and that will include a First Call For Snowfall map. I suspect Winter Storm Watches will be forthcoming from the NWS offices across the region.

Have a great Friday and take care.