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Wintry Changes Ahead- 8pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Temps will chill down this weekend as our eyes turn toward another blast of winter.

8pm Update

Good Saturday evening. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the big change to winter heading our way next week. This will be an abrupt and rather harsh change for the second half of next week into next weekend as the arctic express dives in here.

Check out the deep trough showing up on the European Model by Friday morning…

That map shows the 500mb Height Anomalies and has the deepest part of the trough centered across our region. You can also see how the positive anomalies across western and eastern Canada try to hook up and keep that trough from moving much. That allows for a heck of a shot of arctic air sweeping in here behind a deepening storm that moves through on Wednesday. Here’s how that same run of the European Model looks…

The cutoff low across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes is likely to have disturbances rotating in here from the northwest. These could be snow producers and there’s a chance for one of these to develop into something a little bigger. That’s something for us to keep an eye on over the next few days.

By the way… can we get NCEP to just go ahead and put the GFS out of its misery? The putrid model has basically very little cold anywhere in the eastern half of the country for the end of next week. There is NO other model that is remotely similar to showing what it shows, yet the boys and girls at the local NWS offices continue to take it hook, line and sinker.

I will have a full update later tonight. Enjoy your evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a lot of weather to talk about over the next several days as old man winter is really going to shake things up a bit across most of the country. That shaking may turn to shivering as an arctic blast targets our region by the end of next week and brings some snow with it.

A cold front is slowly working across the region today and will bring a few showers with it. That's especially true early today across the south and east. You can track the drops here...





The slower arrival of the front means many areas will hit 50 again early today before readings slide off later in the day. Colder air moves in overnight with readings down into the upper 20s. The front puts the brakes on just to our south Sunday with highs in the low 40s for most areas. Some clouds will begin to move back in and we will need to watch for some light rain trying to develop late Sunday into early Monday. There could be a touch of something frozen if that is the case.

This brings us to the part of the program you are mainly interested in... the middle and end of the week. An upper level low will slowly meander across Texas early next week before deciding to lift toward our region Tuesday night and Wednesday. This happens as an arctic blast dives southward across the plains states and tries to catch this storm. Will it be successful in doing so?

The GFS Ensembles say it has a shot...



That's a lot of rain on Wednesday before a switch to snow by Thursday morning as arctic air rushes in. Then it's snow showers and squalls and possibly more depending on impulses rotating in here. At leas, that's what the model is showing.

The New European Model is also very close to a phase and goes right to the monster closed Ohio Valley low idea I've been harping on...



There's a lot of energy rotating around that bad boy and that could spawn something more than just snow showers and squalls.

As I've mentioned earlier... we have a lot of possibilities on the table for the end of next week into next weekend. This should be a fun week of watching the weather to see what the old man throws our way to make up for lost time.

I will update again later today, so be sure to check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.

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