Wintry Changes Later This Week- 7pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

Cold temps and snow chances move in by the end of the week.

7pm Update

Good Monday evening to one and all. Here’s hoping each of you are putting the wraps on a wonderful note. Many areas got in on some rain and sleet showers earlier today with brightening afternoon skies. It’s full steam ahead into a wintry pattern and we have your model breakdown.

Let’s start with the European Model as it continues to be the steady leader…

It has the arctic front moving eastward on Thursday with temps dropping into the 20s behind it. There is also likely to be a band of light snow behind the front from Thursday afternoon and evening. Check out the pool of cold air moving in for Friday! Brrrr You will also see the weekend clipper showing up by Saturday morning just to our west. This has a shot to bring us a swath of snow this weekend.

The GFS is slowly coming around to the deeper and colder trough idea of the European Model. It also shows the band of snow behind the arctic front…

 Watch for the numbers on the GFS to come down over the next few days. ;)

A few other models slow the front down long enough to allow for another wave of low pressure to develop along it and bring some more post frontal snow into Friday. The GFS Ensembles…

 The Canadian Model is in a similar camp…

Is it too much to ask to get the models to all show the same thing? Just once? Either way… you see the snow chances I have been harping on actually showing up on the models.

Remember the weekend clipper? The GFS is digging this system MUCH more than the rest of the models and actually blows this up into a winter storm around here Sunday and Monday. Look at the snowfall forecast from the morning run…

 The latest run of the model is showing something very similar. So, that’s back to back runs of the GFS showing a storm Sunday into Monday. It doesn’t have many friends right now, so let’s see if it can find one with the evening model runs.

Oh yeah… check out the severe cold engulfing Canada and slowly dropping southward into the states next week…

If you’re playing along at home… that’s almost -40c air showing up at 850mb in Canada.

That’s all I have for you this evening. Wow… I made a lot of maps for you guys for an evening update. Your friendly weather dude must be liking the pattern ahead! ;)

Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Monday everyone and welcome to a new work week that will feature some big weather changes for much of the country. A shot of arctic air will engulf the eastern half of the country later this week and puts an end to the March weather of the past several days. This change means our temps tank and we will even throw some snow chances your way. It’s all part of a larger pattern change that takes us through the rest of January and threatens to really go wild later this month.

We have a stalled out front just to our south today and there is a bit of moisture along and north of the boundary. Some showers are on the move across the state this morning and there is the chance for some frozen stuff for areas seeing temps closer to freezing. You can track the action here...

The showers move out during the afternoon as some rays of sunshine return. Temps today should generally hang in the 40s for highs.

That brings us to the wintry change for the end of the week. It all gets started with an area of low pressure working our way on Wednesday. This low will bring widespread rains in here and some locally heavy downpours will be possible. A major dip in the jet stream works across the plains and surges in here on Thursday bringing us a shot of arctic air. I continue to like how the European Model is handling things much better than the GFS as it’s deeper and colder with the trough. Check out the overall look with the big closed Ohio Valley low by Thursday evening…

Here’s the closer inspection of the European Model…

The arctic front blasts eastward during the day Thursday with temps falling into the 20s behind it. Winds should be very gusty and a lot of the moisture with the front may be in the cold side. There is also the hint of a wave of low pressure along the front to help enhance the band of snow moving through here. Northwesterly winds should keep snow showers and some squalls moving through into Friday with highs struggling in the 20s.

The weekend clipper also shows up and that’s something we will be watching over the next several days. The European isn’t as gung ho on it as the GFS or Canadian models area. The Canadian slows it down and really amplifies it into early next week…

Not really buying that at this point… but there is a ton of action going on across North America as bitterly cold air fills Canada. That cold will then begin to invade the states during the second half of the month.

I will have another update later today. Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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