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A Holding Pattern On The Rain- 7pm Update

By: Chris Bailey
By: Chris Bailey

The rain is slowing down as it tries to work into the tri state

7pm Update

Good Sunday evening to one and all. Heavy rain has been sitting just to our west all day long. This has given us a fantastic Sunday of weather. Those rains finally move in here as we roll through our Monday and will continue into Tuesday. Heavy rains will be possible during this time.

The next item up for bids is a potential snow maker for late Wednesday into Thursday. Models like the European and Canadian had been rather bullish on this scenario until last night and this morning. Those earlier runs had a strong low developing to our southeast and lifting northeastward into the mid atlantic states. The latest Euro really isn't too far from showing that.

The past several runs of the NAM, GFS and GFS Ensembles decided to pick up where the foreign models left off and show a fairly healthy storm and snow maker for our region. The late day run of the GFS...



The new GFS Ensembles agree...



Both of those would put down accumulating snows across much of the tri state. The question becomes... are they correct in this more wound up low? Some random thoughts from my little weather brain...

- The stronger low idea certainly fits the pattern of the year and past few months. How many wimpy lows have we seen slide due east off the Carolina coast?

- There is an awful lot of 500mb energy rolling through here by mid week and that would certainly support something like the above maps are showing.

- All that said... the GFS, GFS Ensembles and NAM have not been among the best performing models of late. They need a few model friends to join in their snow camp before I really bite on this.

Time will tell and I suspect all the models will converge on a solution at some point Monday.

Whatever happens with this system... a nice shot of cold will follow for the upcoming weekend...



That should have some snow showers and squalls with it as it marches into town.

On a side note... I have to do this every year around this time and on and off through the winter months. I do this blog on my own free time and do not get paid a dime to provide this service to you. I NEVER miss a day of updating, but there will be days I simply can't give it a full blown effort like normal. Just because I don't do a post about snow and cold doesn't mean something has changed. It simply means I couldn't give it the proper amount of time needed.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

Previous Update

Good Sunday to one and all. The threat for heavy rain appears to be lessening across our part of the world. The rain train is putting the brakes on just to our west and that means we may get some bonus hours of pleasant weather.

Let's break it all down with the headlines...

- Rain will move into western Kentucky and Ohio today and will become heavy at times. This rain shield will only make it so far east before putting the brakes on. This means those in the east should enjoy a mainly dry day.

- Much of the state will see the heavy rains slowly move in later Monday into Tuesday. Odds for flooding here appear to be rather low at the moment as the torrential rains just miss us to the west...




- Colder air moves in by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. There is likely to be another wave of low pressure developing along the front just to our east by later Wednesday. The models don't yet know what to do with this system as some have been blowing it up into a big storm, while others show it to be rather weak. The GFS Ensembles seem to split the difference...



- The stronger the storm, the colder the blast coming in this weekend will be.

Let's get back to the weather of today and track some rain...



I will update things later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.

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