Outlook for The Last Day of Spring & First Day of Summer

While we are still "technically" in the spring season, very summer-like weather has been affecting our region the past few days. It seems that these tropical conditions will stay in place for tomorrow too...

For those of you that begged for heat during the very cold winter outbreak we had, it seems that your wish has been granted! Or has it? Although it has been very warm, much of the region did not hit 90° until just the past few days (June 17th in Huntington and June 18th in Charleston). Typically, our first 90° day in this region is observed by the end of May. So, we actually are seeing a bit of a slower start to the "real" heat of summer as we approach the season kick-off this Saturday. 

After seeing 90° days this week, a very tropical atmosphere shaped into place today. Although temperatures topped out in the upper 80s (a few degrees cooler), humidity was very high and so the air felt very thick. As a result, thunderstorms were able to thrive as they developed in the afternoon and evening. Scattered storms developed to our southwest in Kentucky by the 5 PM hour, and to our northwest in Ohio. Eventually, these two storm cells merged, which lead to a more powerful storm passing through eastern Cabell County and western Kanawha County about the 8 PM hour. 

As storms are expected to weaken late tonight, scattered showers and pop-ups of lightning will be possible for early tomorrow morning. However, the best chance of storms will be in the afternoon and evening. Areas of downpours will be possible. Here is a look at the NAM model outlook...

Rain just starts to approach the area by the early afternoon, but it can be easily seen that the  heaviest of showers approaches in the late afternoon and evening (refer to the second panel of the 8 PM hour). These showers and storms will likely linger into the late evening, with the NAM keeping much of our region in a scattered chance through the 2 AM hour. 

By Saturday, a few showers will be possible in the early morning, but much of the later morning and early afternoon will be dry. Progressing into the mid-afternoon, we will see a slight chance of pop-up storms.

Overall, it seems that the time of concern for localized high water will be mainly between Friday afternoon and Friday late in the evening. The NWS Weather Prediction Center has the following outlook for rainfall from tonight through Saturday night...

 

 

Looking out to Sunday, it seems that the day will be a "normal" summer-like day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. By the start of next week, another system will approach from the west. This will bring better storm chances, especially heading into Tuesday...

 

Be sure to tune in for any updates!

-Kelly Ann

 

 

 

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