WSAZ - Blogs - Kelly Ann Cicalese

Tuesday Night Update

An updated look at what the latest weather model runs are expecting for the next wintery system.


There is still some uncertainty with the track of the winter system heading our way Wednesday evening and Thursday. However, the general consensus of the models is to keep the heaviest of snowfall south and east of our region. Unless there is a shift westward (which still isn’t completely out of the question), most of our region will not see a huge impact from this storm.


Here is the outlook from the NAM model…


If you recall yesterday’s outlook, the NAM is starting to inch the snow slightly further north and eastward today. Yet, areas north of 64 are still sitting outside of that moisture reach. This outlook would bring areas south of Charleston on I-77 and southeast of I-79 the best potential for snowfall. Note the sharp gradient in moisture over our region, with none over the river cities, and up to 0.35" over southeast West Virginia.


The GFS outlook is also shifting further north-westward…


This outlook keeps the system slightly closer to the coast than the NAM outlook. As a result, snow is able to penetrate into areas along the Ohio River. But, the amount of moisture is looking light throughout our region. In fact, even the eastern counties are only seeing 0.05-0.10” of quantitative precipitation.


 Lastly, the EURO outlook is still sticking to its guns…


Notice how this model keeps the system furthest west, which is ideal for snowfall in our region. This particular outlook would still bring the potential for moderate snowfall region wide.


Right now, I am leaning toward the American models which would mean much of our region will not see a significant impact from this storm.


In a line stretching northeast from northern Pikeville through Charleston to Sutton, 1-3” will be possible. Moving further east, from Bluefield to Snowshoe, near 6” will be possible. Lastly, moving into areas like Wytheville, VA, close to a foot of snowfall can be expected!


As for the rest of us, a light dusting is expected at most. Continue to watch WSAZ for updates and I'll have another look at the models with my blog post tomorrow night,


Have a good evening!


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