Up and Down In A Spring Like Fashion

A cool down is expected tonight, but it won't be long before another warm up returns!

After seeing a warm kick off to the work week with highs in the 80s, it is hard to believe that tonight's forecast calls for lows in the upper 30s! This cool down is due to the same cold front that brought early showers to the region. It isn't until a second cold front pushes through on Friday morning, that we will see another chance of rain.

Here is a look at the temperature trend at the 850mb level for the next day or so...

For Wednesday at sunrise, we will see temperatures drop below freezing at the 850mb level (upper panel). This will translate to surface temperatures in the upper 30s. Notice how there is a dominant flow from the northwest (upper panel). It isn't until there is a shift in wind direction that we will be able to warm up again. That is why for Thursday morning, with a northwest flow still somewhat in place (but not as strong), we are expecting another cold start with temperatures in the 30s(middle panel). Notice how by Thursday afternoon, the flow is from the southwest and temperatures at the 850mb level start to pull about 12° above zero (bottom panel). This wind shift will be felt at the surface too, with highs in the mid 70s.

By late Thursday night into Friday morning, a weak cold front will approach our region, bringing another chance of scattered showers and storms...

Much like the last blast of showers we saw in our region, Friday's showers will likely ignite in the morning and taper off in the evening. Notice how there is only a small amount of moisture affiliated with this frontal passage (upper panel). By the weekend, conditions will dry out before the next system brings rain for Monday and Tuesday (middle and bottom panel). However, the moisture and convection affiliated with this system looks to be much stronger than our past systems. This is something that will have to be monitored, with a slight potential for severe strength storms.

Have a good night!

-Kelly Ann

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