Update on Snow Chance Tonight and Wednesday

Yet another cold front approaches our region tonight bringing rain and a chance of snow.

After last night's rainfall, we saw a break in the cloud coverage and a warm up this afternoon which made for a "Spring-Like" day.  For tonight, old man winter is knocking on our door in the form of a cold front. Already this evening, the radar is showing rainfall ahead of this front pushing into western Ohio and Kentucky. Behind this front, we will see temperatures cool rapidly with lows dipping down into the upper 20's to lower 30's. Furthermore, we will see a likelihood of snow mixing in.

Yesterday, we were seeing large differences between the models in the timing of this system. That is not the case tonight...

The above image shows the NAM forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Rain is expected to push into south-east Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and north-west West Virginia by 1 AM (upper left).  By 4 AM, we see the chance of snow mixing in, with the 0°C isotherm sitting well to our south (upper right). Snow is expected to linger throughout much of West Virginia and south-east Kentucky, with drier conditions filtering in for Ohio by 10 AM (lower left).  By the afternoon, we will see a chance of a passing flurry of two for most of the region, with the accumulating snow staying concentrated in the mountains (lower right).

The GFS outlook is shown above. Notice how the time frames look almost identical to the NAM forecast. The only slight difference is that the NAM is showing the colder air entering slightly faster (indicated by the blue lines).

Both the NAM and the GFS show the possibility of on and off light snow flurries into the afternoon tomorrow. Most of this is in the far south-eastern extents of West Virginia; however, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a passing flurry or two, especially for tomorrow early evening with a north-west flow being re-established.

Something to keep in mind- the latest runs of the models are looking slightly different. This is the latest NAM output...

Overall, the extent of the precipitation looks far less impressive with this latest run. This forecast implies that the precipitation associated with the cold front passage tonight and early tomorrow will be unimpressive. However, the forecast also implies the possibility of snow later in the day on Wednesday. At the 850mb level, there is a small spike in relative humidity (moisture) at the 4 PM time frame (lower middle panel). This is indicated by the whitish/blue color in eastern Kentucky and West Virginia (lower middle panel). Furthermore, at the same time, there is a piece of vorticity energy moving into our region (lower right panel). As a result, there is a possibility of a snow squall pushing through for the early evening tomorrow.

 

All things considered, this is the snowfall forecast for tonight through tomorrow night...

We should see some flurries before dawn, with on and off flurries throughout the day. Steadier snowfall rates will be possible for far southern Kentucky and southeast West Virginia.

 

In the wake of this cold front, temperatures will remain cold to round off the work week and the weekend. The models are indicating the possibility of passing systems which will bring a chance of snow...

The timing of these next systems vary greatly with each new model run. I will keep you all updated!

 

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