Weekend Rain, Snow Next Week?

Another look at the rainfall event for Saturday and the potential for snowfall next week with another temperature drop.

Good Friday evening everyone. Many folks are outside this evening, waiting in line to get clean tap water. Luckily, conditions will remain dry out there for the majority of this evening. However, rain will approach later on, and will bring heavy rain at times for tomorrow. This is something to consider for not only the people waiting outside in line, but also people who are traveling. Major river flooding will not be an issue, as rainfall totals will stay below an inch for much of the region. Yet, flood prone areas may see minor street flooding tomorrow afternoon.

Here is the latest outlook...

By 4 AM, we will start to see rain pushing into the far western extents of our region in Ohio and Kentucky (left panel). A chance of light, misty rain will be possible into western extents of West Virginia. The onset of precipitation will bring an increase in wind strength, with winds reaching up to 15 MPH at this time frame. By 10 AM Saturday morning, we start to see the chance of heavier showers which is indicated by the yellow shading (right panel). At this point, winds will gust up to 25 MPH in areas. In fact, the 850 mb winds are expected to pick up to 70 MPH during this time frame (refer to below picture). Therefore, depending on the extent of mixing that occurs in the atmosphere, we could see even stronger wind gusts Saturday morning. The 7-11AM time frame is looking to be our best bet for heavy rain and even the possibility of a rumble of thunder....

Referring to the picture below, the SPC has indicated a slight chance (about 10%) of seeing thunderstorms in our area on Saturday morning.

By 4 PM, the heavier rain will sit in eastern West Virginia (picture below). The rest of the region will see a chance of a passing light mist, but for the most part conditions will be dry. Both the NAM and the GFS expect the rainfall in the West Virginia mountains to linger into the overnight hours on Saturday. With temperatures cooling down around freezing, the mountains may see flurries late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Much of the region should see 0.5-0.75", with closer to an 1.00" pushing eastward toward the Appalachians.

 

Sunday will be a decent forecast, as we see a break from the rain and as cloud coverage decreases. Temperatures will be mild progressing into Monday, until another system approaches...

On Monday night, the GFS shows a chance of light rain showers moving into the region (above picture). Notice how our region flirts with the rain/snow line (the blue line). I wouldn't rule out the chance of a flurry or two popping up in Ohio late Monday evening. However, the other models aren't as convinced on this rainfall until Tuesday. 

By late Tuesday night and Wednesday, colder air rushes into our region...

Referring to the image above, snowfall will push well into our region Wednesday morning (according to the GFS). Combine that with a high of only 32°F on Wednesday and we will get a good taste of Winter.

Have a great weekend!

 

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-Kelly Ann

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