Winter Conditions Continue...

A series of clipper systems will move into our region and with each passing system, we see a chance of snow.

Last night's cold front bought a few flurries to areas like N. Ohio and S. Kentucky, with a coating into the West Virginia Mountains. If your area missed out on these flurries, you may luck out with the next round of snow heading our way.

Our region is currently in a pattern where we are seeing a succession of clippers- or fast moving snow systems that originate to our northwest. The next clipper is expected Thursday evening...



Above is a play-by-play of the system moving through our region, according to the NAM model. By 10 PM Thursday, snow will enter S. Ohio (upper left). Before dawn, snow should enter eastern Kentucky and West Virginia too (upper center). On and off snow is expected throughout the day Friday, and may even linger into Friday evening (upper right and lower left). By Saturday morning, the snow should start to exit eastward but, notice how yet another clipper sits to our Northwest (lower right).



As shown above, the GFS outlook expects the next snowfall to arrive a bit earlier than the NAM outlook, with snow pushing into S. Ohio by 7 PM Thursday (left). Snow will extend into the rest of the region by late Thursday evening, and will exit late Friday evening (center and right).

In addition to the differences we are seeing between the models, we are also seeing differences in timing with each new model run. It is hard for the models to pick up on smaller mesoscale features which play a part on snowfall, especially in this region. As a result, we are keeping the chance of snowfall in a rather large window- from Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

One thing is certain, and that is the strong cold blast we will see Friday evening into early Saturday morning...

As shown above, temperatures at the 850 mb level are expected to drop down to about -16°C. Currently, our forecast calls for lows in the upper teens! As a result, any bit of moisture that falls on the roads will have the potential to form black ice. Be careful heading out Saturday morning!


The next clipper waiting in the wings will be pushing through Saturday night into Sunday...


Above is the outlook from the NAM. Snow will touch our region by late Saturday evening, and will become widespread by 1 AM Sunday morning (left and right).



Yet again, the GFS expects this next round of snowfall to enter our region earlier (left). The snow is expected to linger around until early Sunday afternoon (center and right).


Comparing the two systems, notice how the upper level support for the Saturday/Sunday storm is much stronger...


Therefore, the Saturday/Sunday system has a stronger chance of bringing us better accumulations.


It doesn't end there; more snowfall is in the forecast progressing into Tuesday...



Furthermore, an even stronger cold blast is heading our way for the middle of next week...


This shows temperatures at the 850 mb level dropping down to -20°C!


With this outlook, you will need to keep the cold winter gear handy for quite some time!

 

 

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Have a great day everyone!

-Kelly Ann

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