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I did the math and I did the homework today. (Although I joke I went into journalism so I didn't have to do math.)
Hillary Clinton could gain more than 75 thousand votes from West Virginia next week in her bid to get more actual votes than Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. That is very important, because Clinton needs that popular vote victory so she can lay claim to superdelegates that SHE is the candidate who can win in November. Clinton appears to be too far behind in pledged delegates and can not beat Obama in the number of states won.
So here's how Clinton nets those 75k plus. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll out Monday shows Clinton leading Obama in WV 56% to 27%. That mirrors earlier polls in this contest in West Virginia.
In 2004, the last presidential primary year, 252,839 West Virginia Dems voted. That number will certainly rise this year with much more interest in the contest. In 2004, John Kerry was all but the nominee. In fact, West Virginia helped push him over the top.
There are 17% undecided Dems right now, according to the RR poll. To be fair, let's say those votes split even and Clinton gets 65% of the vote. 65% of that vote total would net Clinton 164,345 votes compared to 88,494 for Obama.
Currently, Clinton trails Obama by more than a half million votes nationwide. West Virginia voters could help Clinton cut into that margin by 1/6. So more than ever West Virginia -- your vote definitely counts this year!
And to think, I didn't score that well on the math portion of my SAT.
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