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10 AM Friday Update The rain-snow line has set up from Cincinnati to Portsmouth to Parkersburg to Clarksburg this Friday morning. Temperatures are safely above freezing for most of the daylight hours across the region. By late afternoon, that rain snow-line will shift south to I-64. With temperatures still above 32, melting snow would occur at first. But the rate of falling snow this evening will overcome the melting rate and snow will begin to stick even with above freezing temperatures. Overnight thru Saturday, it is going to snow and snow hard at times. A plowable snowfall is in the cards with at least as much snow as we had last saturday. In Interior Southern Ohio and Central WV from Portsmouth to Gallipolis-Pt. Pleasant to Elizabeth-Sutton, your accumulations may double those along I-64. So 8" north and 4 inches south are conservative estimates. It's off to Ironton to brief the Southern Ohio safety Council. “Monster” Winter Resumes Talk about blind luck, my annual trip to Ironton to speak to the Southern Ohio Safety Council on Friday will come as a piece of a monster winter eastern storm will be affecting the region. Last year I had a touch of bronchitis coming on when I spoke to the gang. Thanks to my sickness, I let my guard down and mentioned a Blizzard was possible before Christmas. I showed how all our long range forecast models, the European, Canadian and American equations were on board for a heavy snowstorm. Full disclosure, six days later a snowfall did occur, but much meeker than my interpretation of the models suggested. Moral of the story, be careful what you say when talking snowstorms! This year, I am healthier and wiser than last year, but I will be telling the 75 severe weather coordinators who come to hear me that two east coast blizzards will be CLOSE TO OUR REGION the next 5 days. Again THIS WEKEND our supercomputers are hawking a gargantuan Mid Atlantic Snowstorm that may well earn Blizzard of 2010 status. Travel is absolutely not recommended Friday afternoon thru Sunday dawn along I-68 out of Morgantown to Hagerstown (12”-20”), I-81 thru Western Virginia (12”+), I-71-70 from Indy and Cincy to Columbus and Pittsburgh (6”-12”), I-77 south from Tamarack to Beckley-Wytheville (12”+) and I-64 out of Beckley to Lewisburg and Blacksburg (12”+). This pattern reminds me of three other storm periods in my life, namely, February of 1967 (Ash Wednesday Blizzard in Philly), January-February of 1978 and January-February of 1996. That 1996 stretch led to the snowiest winter on record in Charleston (106.5” fell that season at Yeager airport). All three periods featured snowstorm after snowstorm with arctic cold to boot. It is no wonder that my gut tells me the coldest and snowiest weather of winter may still be ahead! My latest forecast for Friday suggests the air temperature is too high for more than a slushy accumulation of snow and sleet mainly on grass and roofs in the I-64 corridor. Periods of snow, sleet and rain will alternate all day with a cold wind our constant companion. In Northern Kentucky-Southern Ohio, the famous snow belt will be at it again. Roughly west of a line from Vanceburg to Haverhill to Rio Grande to Pomeroy, wet snow should fall much of the day with several inches accumulating. Again, there will be more accumulation on grass and cars than on the slushed over roads and sidewalks. Tonight, as a genuine east coast blizzard cripples the WASHINGTON DC-BALTIMORE area, the air will turn cold enough for the mix to transition back to snow. The faster the changeover, the more new accumulations will occur. I suspect we are looking at as much snow on the ground in the I-64 corridor on Saturday as last week. I will stick with my initial feelings of a general 4 inches of new accumulation area-wide Friday night-Saturday. That would bring accumulations in Interior Southern Ohio to 8”, with 4” along I-64 and the Coalfields (where Friday would have ended with a wet not white ground). One final note, next week’s storm kind of reminds me of the Martin Luther King Day storm of 1994, at least as it is depicted on our weather charts. That storm was a “Katie Bar the Door” snow maker. Of course that’s five days away and we have plenty of time to watch that one. So this Super Bowl weekend, enjoy the game and stay abreast of snow conditions as the Monster Jam comes to Charleston in this monster winter of 2010. |
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Posted by: pj
Oh Velvet......if only I could have said it as well as you have....thumbs up to you!!!!!!
Posted by: Horsey Way to go Cinderella, now I'm a mouse again! You couldn't keep your big mouth shut with this being the best gig we ever got! Enjoy your pumpkin. Posted by: Ken Tony Cavalier and his band of weather guessers cry wolf again don't give up the odds are with you your bound to get it right one of these years MAYBE! good luck keep guessing. Posted by: Nanette Cinderella, why don't you go get some anger counseling. You sure do need it. If the best that you can do is bash people for trying their best to interpret difficult weather predictions you have little to do in your life. Get over it, or better yet just stop reading the blogs if they upset you so much. Just go outside hold up a finger to see which way the wind is blowing and look up to see what the sky looks like from day to day. Even that can change you know. Get over your illusions of your perfect self. Posted by: Mike Great blog. Used to live in WV and remember all the good blizzards of the past especially 1993 and 1996. You were right about Dayton,OH area getting around 10 inches with this storm. We had 8 to 14 in many areas around and north of I-70. Keep up the good work. Posted by: Anonymous actually all of the other stations including weather channel were forecasting the same type of forecast. (Within a couple inches here and there) I guess we don't have to tell you some of these people are uneducated and do not understand the science behind meteorology. Posted by: kl where i leave we was goin get 2-4 but i woke up today and it is still raining i am so sad=[ Posted by: jason i would have to agree with cinderella to a point its bad that so much time was spent in school to do a job and you just can't do it you not only got the forcast wrong again you got it bad wrong not even close now i do watch the other channels and they have all got close to what is happing if you can not do any better mabe you should get some more schooling i do love the snow but most of all i enjoy taking my kids out to play in it now they will be let down AGAIN not to mention the rush that it causes at all the stores mabe you have alot of stock in the stores that get hit by you wrong forcast.. Posted by: Fairy Godmother Cinderella, you are pathetic and a very mean spirited person. I am taking back the dress and shoes. Shame on you. Posted by: Rick S Prediction: Opps Posted by: Chris Tony, you are doing a great job! To Cinderella, the only thing predictable about the weather is that it is absolutely unpredictable. Posted by: Tisha FHS Cinderella...Tony is here to stay for as long as he wishes. WSAZ understands when they have something good, they hang onto it. We the public would never stand for our Tony to be dismissed! He is a wonderful meteorologist for your information. The Weather Channel never gets it right, do you want to see them all fired? Temper temper little child. Posted by: Velvet Cinderella, since your wish is 100% accuracy with weather predications, please consider relocating to Nome, Alaska. The weather predications in the Nome area are 100% accurate every day....Snow, cold, ice, etc. You haven't been the same since you lost your glass slipper & the Prince ran off with your step-mother. Perhaps, therapy may be an alternative to the relocation suggestion. I agree with PJ..Move on for everyone's sakes. Tony, you are the best meteorologist! Thank you! Posted by: pj Cinderella, if you get that upset over the weather I would hate to see you upset over something that was of great importance! You certainly have a choice as to what meteorologists that you listen to and watch, so move on for all our sakes. Posted by: Lou Brings back memories of the Jay Rockefeller Blizzard back in the 70's? Posted by: Anonymous To Cinderella its ridiculous you bash Tony its all prediction he shouldn't be fired all of the weather stations have screwed up its very hard to predict Keyword PREDICT!! Posted by: Cinderella I think its pathetic that you have a degree in meterology and you have still yet to get this forecast right. It's a shame that you put fear in people and all it has done all day is rain. Your pathetic and a waste of this area's resources when you call for this much snow and nothing happens. You did the same last week with the same area and nothing happened. I'm tired of you crying fowl and I wish they would fire you Tony at WSAZ. We deserve a better meterologists. Posted by: Jamie Its 9:04pm and it has been snowing since 8:20pm. Bring it on...I love the southern heavy wet snow storms..I hope its like a foot or more Posted by: toney hi from the town of wayne. i will post a blog on here since for some reason thy are not getting on chris baileys blog. it is 7:40pm and still raining lightly in the town of wayne and it is 38 degrees. i made a prediction last night that we would recieve 8 solid inches in the town of wayne bu saturday evening. i am the so called weather person in the office where i work and my co-workers are always asking me if it is going to rain or how cold it is going to be. i am always glued to either your blog or chris baileys blog. you all do such a great job. i wish murina and josh would blog more about the weather. chris has helped the wsaz weather team out so much and has helped the people that watch the weather by putting maps up so we can understand the weather more, such as the weather models and things like that. nothing beats experience and tony you do know the weather in the ohio valley since the late 80s. wait 5 minutes it will change ( the weather, that is). thanks and god bless you all Posted by: mary It is 7pm and it is still raining...ugh. I'd like to see that snow that we were supposed to be getting. Since we are still not getting snow does that mean that we're not going to get the 8" that u talked about? Rain sucks....bring on the snow! Me and the kids want to build a snowman sometime this year! Posted by: Ed Where is the massive white death? The icy end to us all? The snopocolypse? So far it is rain. Does Tony own stock in Kroger or something? Posted by: WVU Student Here's hoping for a big blizzard next week just in time for first term exams! Praying to the snow gods! Posted by: Julie Well...so far just rain today here, I am hopeful we will get snow though. Posted by: Marshall I dont think your wrong tony. You've nailed this "monster storm" right on the head. Posted by: Cross Lanes Loved the blog Tony you do such a good job. Im sitting here working for the state, watching the rain turn over to sleet. It's little white ice dots. oh gosh i think its going to be snowing before long. Posted by: luke what kind of snow did we get on the Martin Luther King Day storm of 1994? Posted by: Lynn The word "your" should be used as: "your car is in the garage". "You're" should be used in place of "you are", as in "you are usually right" or "you're usually right". These words are not interchangable. Just for good measure, their = their house, they're = they are in their house, there = the house is over there Posted by: RICK MMARTIN YOU GUYS HAD ENOUGH SNOW, SEND SOME DOWN TO US IN MYRTLE BEACH. lol Posted by: Betty Thanks Tony, I always depend on WSAZ forcast before I get out on I-64 Even in good days I like to know if there is a wreck before I go to St. Albans or Charleston. Keep up the good work!!! Posted by: Brenda One inch of rain equals how much snow? If this rain was snow, how much would there be? Posted by: Debbie Wow Tony I remeber 78 well, once in (louisville) we had so much ice I couldn't get it off my windshield, about 2 weeks later it came off in a huge sheet as I was crawling to work on I65! I had chilseled holes and had to keep windows down to see. I worked in a trauma center there and HAD to go in. Wouldn't you know it? In 96 I worked in Charleston, one of the longest winters of my life! LOL. Did I ever mention I hate snow? Posted by: #1 fan Tony, you are a true professional and a gentleman. You always use the word colleagues when giving your weather reports. This word means alot to the men and women at the NWS. They do not deserve any put downs or comments about the work they do. Thank you once again from a family member who is sad that WSAZ allows negative opinions to be thrown in with blogs and other reporting. Thanks again for being a team player. Posted by: Hopeful in paintsville It's a nasty rainy day in paintsville today..would rather see snow anyday over rain!! Hoping the next storm coming in will put some more snow on the ground arond here! Posted by: genoa Thanks for all the hard work you guys do!! Weappreciate the effort to keep us informed! Posted by: Cathy Can we move that snow band down to cover us. We seem to never get the great snows we had years ago. Posted by: kaye I really enjoy reading your colorful blogs Tony! Keep up the good work. "Tony said it would." Steady rain here in the Grayson Lake area. Posted by: Dale Well I hope your wrong on the 8" of snow for this area! Really getting tired of winter in general and awaiting spring anxiously! However, your usually right on the money! (Hopefully your off a few bucks on this one!) |
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