“Perilous” Eastern Pattern
Every now and then, the meteorological community is able to sense the evolution of a potentially severe weather pattern days even a week in advance.
The great Blizzards of 1993 and 2003, last year’s Appalachian tornado outbreak and the fall 2012 hurricane known as Superstorm Sandy come to mind as events called accurately well in advance.
In all three cases, the supercomputers we use to diagnosis and predict future weather events converged on a singular outcome. There was a strong consensus among the European, Canadian and American models that a major event would occur. Only the fine details of the event had to be sorted through.
It was like watching Meredith Vieira on Millionaire. When show contestants are baffled, they use their life lines in an attempt to overcome their own intellectual shortcomings.
One of those lifelines allows for the live audience in the studio to weigh in on the question at hand. Sometimes, there is an 80, 90 even 95% consensus on the audience’s opinion. On those times, the contestant uses the “vast majority” to usually answer the question right.
This is all a lead-up to a growing consensus by our supercomputers of a very wet, potentially hazardous weather pattern in Appalachia and the Atlantic Seaboard late this week through the entirety of next week.
Here’s a map produced by the long rangers predicting multiple inches of rain over the next 7 days along the Atlantic coast and here in Appalachia.
Note the deep reds and oranges simulating a 4 to 10 “ rainfall area just to our east.
Myrtle Beach goers can see how the Grand Strand is in the heart of the heaviest rains with our region on the edge of the seaboard deluge. The legend on the left defines our region to get a general one to two inches of rain with the region from Pittsburgh to Dayton in line for a “forecasted” three inches or more.
Trouble would lurk if that axis of heavy rains backs toward the crest of the Appalachian Mountains.
Given the airflow/streamlines of this pattern will be starting in the deep tropics (Caribbean Sea as far south as Central America), there will be a ton of water available for downpour production should that so-called “tropical” funnel shift toward our region.
At this early stage, let’s just put farmers on alert that the great start to the growing season could be slowed by rains to come the next 10 days and holiday week boaters should expect significant rises on our rivers.
Since the ground will be very wet through the first 2 weeks of July, chances of a heat wave are small and there is a growing feeling that we may struggle to get to 95 all summer long.
Of course the heavy rains would soften the Greenbrier's Old White Course and make it a sitting duck for low scores by the PGA pros, and local fav amateur Pat Carter, next week.