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Indian Summer Winds Down, Next Comes Sandy

The climate is about to take a change to the more seasonal, then maybe the bizarre. Tony documents how Sandy can throw a monkey wrench into our weather.

 

Autumn Chill to Come in Part Thanks to Sandy
 
Indian Summer weather has one more day to run before fall returns in earnest this weekend. So enjoy your Friday! Then heed my advice Marshall fans, my early call for Herd tailgaters is to get some chicken corn soup on the Saturday afternoon menu outside the “Joan”!
 
Thursday’s highs topped out in the 80s, within a whisker of tying a 21 year old record set back just before Hurricane Grace turned into the “Perfect Storm”. More on that quirk in a bit.
 
But our week long run of fun in the warm sun is about to come to an end. Friday’s predicted highs in the 70s will still feel nice but also represent the first down-sizing in temperature this week.
 
While most Friday night football games will be dry, cooling breezes will take over at all fields with a shower possible at a few games in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky.
 
By late Friday night and Saturday, a cold front will be passing. Armed with cooling showers and gusty north breezes, the front will deliver our first round of significant dropping temperatures. This front’s pedigree includes some wet snow in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes so on its own it will chill us down nicely! Highs on Saturday will stay in the 50s for the Ultimate Pumpkin Experience and CK Autumnfest.
 
But in order for it to feel cold here in Appalachia this weekend and next week, it will take something out of the ordinary to overwhelm the last vestiges of Indian Summer.
 
Enter Hurricane Sandy.
 
Late Thursday night, Sandy is a strong hurricane with winds still near 100 miles per hour, having ravaged Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola on Wednesday and the Bahamas on Thursday.
 
Now Sandy has her sights set on the open Atlantic waters of the famed Bermuda Triangle. There this weekend Sandy will churn her way relentlessly northward staying some 500 miles safely at sea ALL THE WAY NORTH TO VIRGINIA BEACH.
 
When we last talked, we debated the difference in solutions described by our two weather models; namely, the American model (aka GFS) had Sandy missing the US mainland by 500-1000  thousand miles as she was SUPPOSEDLY to be steered harmlessly out to sea. The trusty European model (aka Euro) on the other hand predicted an odd curve/turn in the hurricane’s path once she neared Bermuda. This was to take Sandy back toward the shoreline.
 
We surmised that in time one of these two solutions to our weather would be thrown away as one model “blinked”.
 
No question on this Thursday night, the Euro has held fast and it is the Yankee GFS model that has swung around to the Euro’s way of thinking. So it is game on late weekend-early next week for a pre-Hallows Eve storm of significant if not memorable proportions.
 
As for our region, grey skies will lock in ahead of the hurricane with a stiffening NE wind arriving Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday. Some hurricane induced showers will be likely at that time with wet snow accumulation a good bet at SKI RESORTS from Seven Springs/Wisp/Canaan/Snowshoe.
 
Figure back to school and work temperatures in the chilly 40s with a stiff breeze blowing right into our faces.
 
Considering the pounding winds much of the Northeast is in for (complete with power outs, coastal sea surge flooding and torrential rains), I would say we will get away relatively easily.
 
Here’s the latest “bomb” solution from the Euro. As in the case of Grace back in 1991, Sandy will be joining forces with the advancing cold front. When this occured in 1991, it happened in the North Atlantic far at sea and spared New England and the US a direct blow. At the same time, monster seas from the Fleming Cap to the waters east of Novia Scotia proved to be the graveyard for the ill-fated Andrea Gail and skipper Billy Tyne.
 
If the Euro is right, there may be no such stay of execution this go around. Under the most extreme conditions, we even get a slushy accumulation of snow on grass here in WSAZ.COM country!

 

 

 

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