Of Indian Summer & Sandy

Tony says enjoy the week of Indian Summer and the chance to track soon to be Hurricane Sandy in this week's blog posts.


Indian Summer & Sandy Updates
An impressive surge of warm air on Tuesday afternoon propelled temperatures to 80 in many areas, this despite a limited amount of hazy sun. That set the stage for a pleasantly balmy evening for the CK Autumnfest parade.
And that type of Indian Summer weather should see us safely through the rest of the work and school week as well as high school football Friday night. Days near 80 with evenings in the 60s after sunset will be the rule.
Our next weather change will come on Saturday as a chilly Midwestern front will push some gusty showers our way followed by a fresh batch of crisp autumn air for Sunday.
Herd fans, it is not possible on Tuesday, to say when it will rain at Edwards Stadium. After all Saturday’s rains do not exist right now, they will have to form. Plan on an afternoon with a bit of rain for tailgates then temperatures falling into the 40s for the game with UCF.
Meanwhile all eyes in the weather biz will be on Sandy. Sandy is still a tropical storm on Tuesday night with a coronation to full fledged hurricane status expected on Wednesday.
You can track Sandy the next few days as she batters parts of the West Indies (Cuba, Hispaniola, Bahamas) with torrential rains, howling winds and pounding surf. Here’s your official NHC link!
By Saturday-Sunday, Sandy will be raking the Bahamas and ready to make her closest approach to the Myrtle Beach Grand Strand still more than 500 miles at sea. That means the Strand will be experiencing a dangerous surf filled with unpredictable rip currents. The waves will be intense for surfers who will Hang 10 on the best though most perilous conditions of the season. It will be a “SURF AT YOUR OWN RISK” event!
On the boardwalk, strong northeast winds will blow sea spray into the face of late season vacationers while a few ocean showers will cross the Strand.
Since fishing is often at its best before and after the passage of a big ocean storm, anglers may well fill their creels with Croaker, pompano, Spanish Mackerel and Blues off the Garden City Pier.
After that, the dilemma in forecasting Sandy’s next move is still days from being resolved. Tonight I offer the Tuesday European model’s projected path which IF TRUE would deal a devastating blow to NYC, Long Island and much of eastern New England.
Such a track could even produce heavy wet snow at Canaan Valley, Snowshoe, Wisp and 7 Springs.
Below is a 4 day track of Sandy from the Euro. Follow the concentric circles on the lower right as they churn toward the Big Apple!
Recall how Monday's blog qouted the Canadian Model with an almost identical spin!
To its credit, the American Model (aka GFS) continues its steadfast resolve in shoving Sandy seaward toward Bermuda and well away from the shoreline.
As tangled as weather patterns have been this fall in the Atlantic, I am squarely in the camp that the GFS is off base with Sandy's seaward escape.
While I am not yet ready to cry wolf for the Northeast coastline, I feel the superior workmanship that goes into the European model for fall and winter storms is right up the Euro's alley. 

I rate the Euro over the Yankee model in this game of chicken until one model blinks. 









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