Sandy Grabs Weather Headlines

Tony says fall is about to break out of its shell. A hurricane is brewing and while our region enjoys Indian Summer this week, Sandy will be churning up a storm in the Caribbean and Atlantic.


Sandy Forms in Caribbean
There is a time tested and true saying when it comes to hurricanes that dates back to the days when Columbus and the ancient mariners sailed the Seven Seas. When it comes to hurricanes….
   “June is too soon…July stand by…August be on your guard….for a September you will remember…because by October and November it will be all over.”
So it is that on this Monday night with the hurricane season nearing its November end, two storms have caught the scrutiny of the experts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
While it would have been fun to track Hurricane Tony, fact is the storm that is likely to earn my namesake on Tuesday is closer to South America than North America and will be more likely to affect Europe than North America in the next week.
So we are left to track Sandy, which on this Monday night has been christened a bouncing baby girl in the Central Caribbean Sea.
Wind whipped heavy rains and pounding surf will create a huge risk to life and property in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) this week.
You can track Sandy by using this link from the NHC.
While there have already been 17 storms this tropical season, except for Isaac, who ravaged Louisiana in late August, chances are you would be hard pressed to name any of the other 16. That’s because from a US mainland perspective, only Isaac made an “important” impression on America.
And depending on which computer model you like, Sandy could turn out to be another storm destined to be forgettable from a Yankee standpoint.
But when 2 of our three long range fall-winter models take a storm like Sandy and blow it up into a full fledged Atlantic tempest close to the eastern seaboard, I take notice.
While the American model (aka GFS) takes Sandy harmlessly away from the SE USA coast and toward Bermuda, the European and Canadian models are much more bullish on an east coast hurricane threat.
In fact the Canadian model (aka GEM) has a bizarre look in allowing an approaching cold front (which on Monday night was off the west coast of Canada) to grab the storm and pull it inland to a position near Cleveland Ohio by Sunday night-Monday . This would imply that this western front is the stronger of the 2 storms and hence the dominant player, not too dissimilar to the Great Thanksgiving weekend storm of 1950. Right now I deem that far-fetched. But for now I will post this craziest solution for weather fans to see.
Watch the bulls eye of circular lines on the lower right of these maps (aka SANDY) and watch as they  back toward the east coast. Trick or Treat for sure!






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