Summer Forecast Revisited

 

Streaky Summer Pattern Unfolding
 
If the past two weeks are any indication, I sense we are in for a “streaky” summer ahead.
When you think streaks, think batting streaks by Johnny Votto of the Reds or floral streaks like the roses at Ritter Park. When both get on a roll, they are tough to derail.
 
Take the cool weather that set in this past weekend. Generally after 2 or 3 days of cool northwest breezes the air flow veers around to the south and warmer air returns. Those warmer thermals often breed summer-like showers and thundershowers.
 
Indeed on this Monday evening, some thundershowers did boil up in the heat of afternoon. Forming in scattershot form from Charleston southward, the action congealed into a line of thundershowers through much of Boone, Logan, Mingo and Wayne Counties in WV even kissing far Eastern Pike Ky..
 
While non-severe, some downpours did drop a quick quarter to half inch of rain on select areas from the Cabwaylingo State Forest to Chief Logan Park.
 
In their wake, Tuesday will dawn foggy traveling roads into Southern WV including 152 and 52 OW (Out Wayne), US 119 Corridor G thru Boone, Logan and Mingo and roads like Routes 75 and 65 which bisect Mingo County.
 
With a fresh batch of cool Canadian air funneling in, temperatures will earmark the 70s for highs the rest of the week, renewing the “streaky” nature of the summer weather pattern that is developing.
 
Now you might ask, why am I still hawking a hot summer ahead since we have not had a hot streak in more than a week?
 
The answer focuses around the dry ground that has ensued this spring. The “streaks” of rain have not had staying power and now the summer (June thru August) sun will have plenty of energy to go to work on that dry ground.
 
The result should be a doubling of the normal 90 degree days this summer. So rather than 15 ninety days, I am forecasting 30 days with 90 degree heat.
 
By the way, you may be interested to know this is the first time I have incorporated a “global warming” feedback into my summer forecast. In effect, on a globally warmed planet, one would expect more and longer summer heat waves. So this year I have gone from a preliminary assessment of 25 ninety days to 30 (a 20% increase) based on the growing evidence of the planet earth warming.
 
In effect, all my summer forecasts will now show the bias toward 20% more hot days than before.
 
Some will disagree with this notion and to that I can briefly state…”I am a scientist and the finest scientists in my field , of which I am not one, are in stark agreement that global warming is real.” That consensus has proven to be too good to ignore.
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