Hurricanes, Past and Present

Hard to believe but here on Thursday afternoon, Chris Bailey and I are pondering the rarest hurricane events where count ‘em two hurricanes make US landfall within a few days time.

Given our local history of heavy rainfalls from the remains of such storms, it is prudent that we watch the weather in the tropics this weekend.

Of course any would-be effects here from Gustav and Hanna are days if not a full week from being nailed down. So enjoy the Regatta in Charleston, Tribute to the River in Point Pleasant, River Days in Portsmouth and Catlettsburg Celebration this Labor Day weekend while you watch with us this extraordinary pattern unfold.

Briefly, both Gustav and Hanna are only tropical storms right now. However, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed for both to become major hurricanes within sniffing distance of American soil.

Gustav looks to take the classic Caribbean Sea-Gulf of Mexico track from near Jamaica man thru the Yucatan Channel (perhaps grazing western Cuba) and then into the super hot Gulf of Mexico.

Camille in 1969 and Ivan in 2004 are legendary storms to have taken a similar track. Both brought heavy, flooding rains into the Virginias, with Camille nearly drowning parts of Virginia and Ivan sending the mighty Ohio into flood. In fact Camille inspired me to become a meteorologist as an inquisitive soon to be ninth grader growing up in the Italian Market section of South Philly.

Hanna on the other hand is right now north of Puerto Rico in the famous hurricane alley that normally sends big storms slamming into the Carolinas. Hugo in 1989 and Floyd in 1996 come to mind as analogs.

Hugo devastated Charleston SC and dealt a severe blow all the way inland to Charlotte before motoring in another 12-18 hours past Hurricane WV. Locally, schools let out early that Friday in expectation of high winds and heavy rains.

That afternoon, the winds kicked up to 35 miles per hour and a few hours of squally rains passed thru but Hugo was moving so fast (he would wind up in Canada the next morning) that his effect was minimal except to keep attendance down at the Pumpkin Festival in Milton.

Floyd spawned severe flooding in the Potomac Highlands of Eastern WV with heavy rains as far west of Huntington and Louisa. The Lawrence County Septemberfest and High School football games fell prey to Floyd’s Friday night assault.

We will be watching the events closely, but as I have written before, storms like this tend to pump up the heat index, so I would expect a hot and humid period next week ahead of any would be rains. We are expecting near 90 degree heat much of next week.

By the way, Gustav should be in the Gulf all weekend and nearing American soil by Labor Day. Hanna does not look to follow Hugo’s path into the Carolinas as a rare Southwestward trek is likely perhaps thru the Southern Bahamas and even Northern Cuba or the Florida Keys. The infamous 1935 unnamed storm (we didn’t start naming hurricanes until 1951) comes to mind.

I am working on my gas prices hurricane story for Friday on First at Five but if you can’t watch, just take a note from the boys in the energy pits at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade). There the trading of energy futures is pricing in a hurricane strike and likely spike up in gas prices as early as Friday.

I stand by my earlier prediction of $4.25 per gallon by next Tuesday.