Dry Pattern to Break, Hopefully not Flood

What a great afternoon out there you must agree! Plenty of golden sunshine in a sapphire setting (thanks to Elliott Abrams for that saying) basks our little corner of the world. A Yankee north breeze is drawing refreshingly cool air in from Oh Canada.

Save for high ragweed pollen levels in the air and some lawns still showing the brown wear and tear of our late summer dryness, dare I say this is as good as it gets. Trouble is it is about to get a lot cloudier, a lot wetter and a lot muggier.

Tuesday’s rains were the first in a series of soaking downpours we expect thru early next week. So if you missed out on the healthy rains as the River Cities of Ashland, Ironton and Huntington did, cheer up! Your freshly seeded lawn will get a very good drink of water in the days ahead.

The setup is complicated. First, this Canadian air mass is going to hold its ground as Tuesday’s front moves back north beginning Thursday. That collision will produce some afternoon showers on Thursday especially in Eastern Kentucky then a general shower and downpour pattern on Friday.

Early call for game number 3 of the WV Power Sally League championship series with the Green Jackets is for a warm night with a light shower at best.

By Friday though, Strongman competitions in Charleston and high school football games are looking unsettled with showers and even a few downpours. We should measure a half inch of rain on TGIF in many areas.

This weekend, the air will complete a transformation to tropically warm and muggy so have some cold beverage on ice for your favorite tailgate. The Bobcats have their home opener against the Chippewas of Central Michigan at Peden in the afternoon while the Herd hosts Memphis in a CUSA night tussle at Edwards Stadium.

Daytime highs in the 80s will feel uncomfortable with that high octane humidity likely producing a shower or thundershower. The Herd will finish it’s game with temperatures in the 70s.

Let me stress, Friday is the wet day with Saturday featuring hazy skies and a shower or thundershower for a half hour or hour once or twice. Much of Saturday will be dry.

By late Sunday and Monday, the remains of powerful Hurricane Ike will be moving into the Ohio Valley, so we may well be the recipient of a heavy rain storm. Given that event is still 5 days in the making, I stress this is just an early call.

So far this hurricane season, Fay has passed thru with a healthy 1”-2” rain fall while Gustav managed just a few showers last Saturday as his sister Hanna stole our rain off to the east. My gut says Ike does another Fay on us and brings us relieving rains with some street and small stream flooding. But the flood forecast will need to be fine tuned.